Luke Littler's Grand Slam dominance faces its biggest test yet as a brutal new format awaits

The Grand Slam of Darts gets underway on Saturday, with Luke Littler looking to become the first player since Michael van Gerwen to win three titles in a row. Winning in 2024 and 2025 without dropping a game in the group stage, the world number one has made this tournament his own, but this year’s format brings a new kind of pressure for the favourites. With only the group winner advancing from each group of three, one bad night can send a seed home with £12,500, and the safety net of second place that so many past champions relied on no longer exists.

With 23 English players in the field, ten can be considered genuine favourites, nine of them seeds, and each comes in with a different case. Players like World Grand Prix champion Luke Humphries, European Champion Ross Smith and six-time group winner James Wade all have the form or the history to go deep, but some of the biggest names have never won a Grand Slam group at all. Which English favourite is most likely to stop Littler? Statistics are based on PDC tournament results and player performances across the 2026 season, with historical Grand Slam records covering the 2016–2025 editions.

2024 and 2025 Champion Luke Littler can make it three years without losing a game in Wolverhampton, but the picture looks different this year. After winning the World Championship, UK Open, Premier League and World Matchplay, the conversation around Littler was only 5 months ago about whether he could win every major in 2026, but since the Matchplay, that has dried up.

Failing to pick up a televised title since the Matchplay, Littler’s form has slipped, and he now faces 4 months without winning a major title following his voluntary absence from the Players Championship finals, meaning only the Grand Slam and World Championships remain. Losing to Cam Crabtree 6-5 at the World Youth Championship, Littler’s form has taken a tumble, but he is still statistically the best player in the world. Averaging 101.50 and a simply stunning 112.00 first nine, his group of Beau Greaves and Niels Zonneveld looks straightforward on paper, outclassing their averages by some margin.

The Nuke hasn’t been himself since the Matchplay, defying any odds of him losing by putting on one of the all-time best World Matchplay weeks, averaging 111.53 in the final against Gerwyn Price to round off a consistently brilliant weekend.

Since then, Littler has been brilliant but not consistent, ranging from averaging 114.47 against Aspinall at the European Championships before bailing out to Krzysztof Ratajski 10-6. The Grand Slam is different, though: best of nine means short, sharp legs that suit Littler’s scoring power and clinical finishing. With his history in this tournament and 180-hitting, it's hard to see how Zonneveld and Greaves could knock Littler even at his B game.

Steady Stephen Bunting hasn’t torn down any trees in 2026, but hasn’t stepped a foot wrong. Not winning a title in 2026, the Grand Slam of Darts offers a great opportunity to win his first major in two years, but the gap between his floor and stage performances has been the biggest worry. Winning 71% of his games on the floor, Bunting has averaged 95.84, reaching one final at Players Championship 3 and several other quarter-finals.

On the stage, he hasn’t found this level of consistency yet: he's won 43% of his European Tour matches and has only one televised quarter-final at the European Championships; the Bullet has something to prove. For Bunting, the problem has been the margin of his losses, being beaten consistently at every major so far, including a 10-3 loss to Price at the European Championships, a 4-0 loss to Noppert at the Masters and an 11-6 loss to Rock at the Matchplay. Averaging 94.98 this year, Bunting will need to increase this in Wolverhampton, as any exploits he can currently get will soften the inevitable blow of £100,000 coming off his rankings after the World Championships.

Bunting’s ranking slide hasn’t come as a result of poor form, just not at the same level as the 2014 BDO World Champion was in recent times, currently ranked 9th in a tightly contested top 16.

Group D is a pretty favourable draw but still includes banana skins, as ANZ Premier League winner Raymond Smith and a resurgent Cameron Menzies are both solid players averaging above 89 for the season and with the possibility of reaching this ceiling, Bunting can’t take anything for granted. Having lost to both players in 2026, the 9th seed will hope this doesn’t happen again.

2026 World Championship Semi-Finalist Ryan Searle has been guilty of relying on this result far too much in 2026, falling from World Number 8 to 15 in the space of 11 months. With claims of a Premier League spot at the start of the year, Searle is in a position similar to Bunting, where he needs prize money to stay consolidated in the top 16 in the foreseeable future. Since that semi-final, Searle has operated at a similar level as he always has, winning Players Championship 7 to make it seven consecutive years with a Players Championship title and reaching his second European Tour final before losing to Ross Smith.

Always knocking on the door of elites, he still hasn’t seemed to be welcomed in, and his average explains this. 24th-best average in the world, Searle’s 94.54 doesn’t really make him an elite threat like Smith, Price or Littler, but his checkout percentage of 40.19% also doesn’t compensate like players Wade or Van Veen. Strangely, his semi-final seemed to be the moment where Searle felt he belonged, but this hasn’t happened, and now he faces Gilding and Manby as the favourite, but not an overwhelming favourite.

Debutant Charlie Manby has taken to tour life well in 2026, with this qualification summing up a great first year as a professional player. From tinkering with his throw in the early stages of the year to winning the Players Championship 31 in October, Champagne Manby will prove to be a hungry debutant. Conversely, the experienced Gilding is also on similar form to the rest of the group, winning Players Championship 16 and averaging 92.66, signalling a threat to Searle.

Searle’s issue isn’t that his group has outstanding quality, but that the players will all think they have a great shot at winning this group. Without a good history in this tournament, Searle wouldn’t come as a surprise exit come Wednesday.

Former Finalist Cross’ comeback in 2026 has been nothing short of remarkable, and the manner he has operated himself in is a testament to his quality. Searching for a result, Voltage could find one at the Grand Slam to finally give him what he deserves. Never knocked out at the group stage, Cross bids to be a tricky opponent despite being unseeded, qualifying by winning Players Championship 22 that ended a 16-month title drought. Failing to qualify last year, Cross comes back in much better form, averaging 95.86 and a 41.68% checkout percentage. Cross has successfully become the full package, something he’s missed since being knocked out of the Premier League in 2025.

On TV this year, Cross has shown relatively mixed form, including a UK Open quarter-final but also first-round exits at the World Series of Darts Finals, the European Championships and the World Grand Prix, as the unseeded Englishman will seek to finally deliver on what has been a positive 2026. In eight appearances, it was only 2018 when Cross won his group, finishing second seven times; a privilege he won’t be able to exploit this time around.

With solid average and good form, what could stop Cross? Group G consists of 2021 winner Jonny Clayton and Nordic and Baltic qualifier Anton Ostlund, two players at the complete opposite of the spectrum of qualifiers. Firstly, World Number 5 Clayton matches Cross in almost every stat, averaging 95.54, but he has much more to celebrate about this year.

Second place in the Premier League of Darts table, the Welshman has impressed so far. On the other hand, Anton Ostlund is a relative unknown, playing on the Nordic and Baltic circuit and making appearances at the Modus Super Series, most recognisably missing the third dart at bullseye for an iconic nine-darter with Swedishman Andreas Harryson. Independent of that, his stats are in a different league to Cross, averaging 84.26 so far this year, meaning the group will most likely be decided by the game between Cross and Clayton. Will Cross finally define his comeback with a result, or will Clayton carry on his impressive form?

If anyone is going to stop Littler, the numbers point to Luke Humphries. Arriving as World Grand Prix champion after beating Gerwyn Price 6-4 in the final, Cool Hand Luke has been the most consistent winner on the floor this year, winning 41 of his 48 Players Championship matches and 16 of 20 on the European Tour, with seven titles to show for it. Averaging 99.98 with a 109.49 first nine, Humphries is the only player in the field within touching distance of Littler, yet six lost finals tell the other side of his year, three of them to The Nuke himself, including the Masters and the Premier League by a single leg.

His Grand Slam record carries the same contradiction. A champion in 2023 and runner-up last year, when he averaged above 104 in three straight knockout matches, Humphries has also gone out in the groups three times, including in 2021 despite winning two of his three games. Group I gives him the cleanest draw of the top seeds, with Joe Cullen winning fewer than four in ten deciding legs and Paolo Nebrida averaging 86.36. On paper this should be straightforward, but has he learnt from 2024?

Few players have had a better autumn than Luke Woodhouse. Beating Littler 2-1 at the World Grand Prix before reaching the European Championship quarter-finals, where he beat Dirk van Duijvenbode and Gian van Veen before averaging 103.40 in defeat to Ross Smith, Woodhouse has proven he belongs on the big stage this year. Winning 69 Players Championship matches, the most of any English favourite, alongside titles at European Tour 8 and Players Championship 18, the 15th seed comes into Wolverhampton averaging 95.07 with a 104.33 first nine.

His Grand Slam history is short but encouraging, winning his group 3-0 last year before a 10-9 defeat to Ricky Evans in the last 16 ended his run. Group J looks favourable on this year’s results, with Woodhouse beating Tom Sykes three times and Krzysztof Ratajski 6-1 at Players Championship 13. Yet Ratajski is the danger. Averaging 94.53, the Polish Eagle knocked Littler out of the European Championship only a few weeks ago, meaning Group J contains both players who have beaten the world number one on television this autumn. Can Woodhouse turn a strong season into a statement run?

No English seed has a better Grand Slam group record outside of Littler than James Wade. Topping six of his nine groups and reaching the final in 2016 and 2020, The Machine has made this tournament one of his most reliable, and his 2026 has followed the same pattern. Reaching the UK Open final, where he beat Michael van Gerwen 10-3 and Gerwyn Price 11-8, both while averaging above 105, before losing 11-7 to Littler, Wade has added a World Grand Prix semi-final and quarter-finals at the Masters, World Matchplay and World Series of Darts Finals.

His 94.90 average won’t scare anyone, but his finishing will: a 43.24% checkout, 52.49% on functional doubles and 62.07% in deciding legs, the best finishing numbers of the ten. On paper, Group K is one of the kindest draws, with Ricky Evans averaging 90.60 and Cam Crabtree 88.80, but the head-to-heads say otherwise. Wade has lost to both this year, 6-4 to Evans at European Tour 8 and 6-1 to Crabtree at Players Championship 4. He beat Evans 5-2 at this tournament last year, but went home in third anyway. Can he avoid the same fate?

Chris Dobey's 2026 season is almost impossible to explain. On the floor, Hollywood has been one of the most dominant players in the world. Under the television lights, however, he has struggled to deliver anything remotely resembling that level. On the floor, Hollywood has won 92 Players Championship matches, the most of any English favourite, averaging 99.04 and picking up three titles, including an 8-1 win over Stephen Bunting in the final of Players Championship 3.

On television, he has won just two matches all year, both at the Masters in January, before first-round exits at the UK Open, the World Matchplay, the World Series of Darts Finals, the World Grand Prix and the European Championship. Averaging 97.33 with a 108.08 first nine, Dobey has the third-best scoring of the ten favourites, yet he hasn’t been able to take that form onto the stage. Last year proved he can at this event, winning his group 3-0 on legs of 15-3 before losing 10-9 to Michael Smith. Group N gives him the chance to do it again. Martin Schindler reached the European Championship final last month but wins just 28.57% of his deciding legs, while World Youth Championship finalist Jan Schmidt averages 84.42, almost 13 points below Dobey. If Dobey can’t win this group, when will he win on the stage?

Ross Smith has arguably been the best player on television in recent months. Unfortunately, the Grand Slam of Darts has historically been the one tournament where he hasn't been able to deliver. Winning the European Championship last month, beating Luke Woodhouse, Gerwyn Price and Martin Schindler along the way, only weeks after averaging 103.89 to beat Price 11-5 in the World Series of Darts Finals, Smudger has two televised titles since September, more than anyone else in the field.

Add European Tour wins in Events 7 and 11 and Players Championship titles in Events 5 and 20, and Smith has six titles in 2026, built on the best deciding-leg record of the ten favourites at 64.29% and 31 European Tour match wins, again the most of the group.

The only thing missing is his Grand Slam record. In three appearances, Smith has never won a group, losing all three games in 2019 before finishing second in 2022 and 2024, which under this year’s format would have sent him home both times. Group O looks the kindest of any English seed, with Gabriel Clemens winning a quarter of his deciding legs and Rusty-Jake Rodriguez averaging 83.61. Every number says this is the year that record ends. Will the history say otherwise?

Nathan Aspinall’s year has been defined by one opponent. Losing to Luke Littler at the World Matchplay, the World Series of Darts Finals and the European Championship, including a 10-5 defeat in Dortmund despite averaging 105.57, The Asp has run into the world number one at almost every turn. Away from Littler, his year has been strong: winning European Tour 4 with an 8-5 win over Danny Noppert and reaching the World Grand Prix semi-finals, where he beat Woodhouse and Ryan Joyce 3-0 before losing to Price.

Aspinall averages 95.75 and wins 61.54% of his deciding legs. Missing out on the Players Championship Finals means this is his last stage appearance before the World Championship, giving him extra reason to go deep. His Grand Slam pedigree is real, too, reaching the final in 2022, although three group exits in six appearances show it hasn’t always been smooth. Group P won’t be easy. Karel Sedláček beat him 6-3 at Players Championship 30, and Maik Kuivenhoven is playing for his tour card. The good news for Aspinall? Littler sits in the other half of the draw.