Stephen Bunting on the brink, Michael Smith chasing a lifeline - European Championship race set for dramatic climax in Maastricht this weekend

Stephen Bunting is defending the final European Championship qualification place. Michael Smith needs a late surge to take one. Their paths could collide at the Dutch Darts Championship this weekend, with Maastricht offering the last chance to reach Dortmund after very different European Tour campaigns.

Bunting arrives in 32nd place on £33,000, just £2,000 ahead of Karel Sedlacek. Martin Schindler is scarcely more comfortable immediately above him, while Smith’s encouraging return in Basel has kept qualification within reach despite his limited appearances this season.

The field for Dortmund will be settled when the last of this year’s 15 European Tour events concludes on Sunday.

“He’s fighting for more than just qualification for Dortmund,” DartsNews Podcast host Kieran Wood said of Bunting. “It might be a bit dramatic to say it, but it could be his Premier League as well. If he finishes outside the top 32 on the Euro Tour, having been to almost all of them, it’s going to be a big blow for his standing.”

A year ago, Bunting qualified for Dortmund as the third seed after winning two European Tour titles. This time, he could slip outside the provisional top 32 before throwing his first dart in Maastricht.

Sedlacek plays Callan Rydz in Friday’s opening round. Victory would take the Czech player to £34,500, above Bunting’s current total and level with Schindler. Bunting does not begin until Saturday evening, when Cameron Menzies or Nick Kenny will be waiting.

His second-round defeat to Jeffrey de Graaf in Basel left him without any additional ranking money. Another opening-match loss would leave him stranded on £33,000, relying on results elsewhere. Beating Menzies or Kenny would take him to £38,000.

“Especially after going out early in Basel, this weekend in the Netherlands is massive for him,” Wood said. “I’m very critical when it comes to Stephen Bunting even being in the conversation for another Premier League,” said podcast co-host Nicolas Gayer. “But he’s played in it the last two years, so of course you have to talk about him. That would definitely be a big blow.”

The draw offers little comfort beyond his opener. Should both men progress, Bunting would face Smith in the last 16, with the former world champion needing that victory to keep his own Dortmund hopes alive.

Smith’s position comes after a much smaller European Tour campaign. Basel was only his fourth appearance of the season, with arthritis and fitness problems forming part of the difficult backdrop to his attempts to recover his best darts.

“I enjoy darts more when Michael Smith is around and playing like that,” Gayer said of his Swiss performances. “He’s just a mesmerising player.”

Smith starts against Stephen Burton on Friday evening, with Nathan Aspinall awaiting the winner. Getting through those two matches would leave him on £30,000, still below the current qualification line. A quarter-final would bring him level with Bunting’s starting total of £33,000; a semi-final would take him to £35,000.

Neither figure guarantees qualification, with the cutoff still capable of rising and equal totals separated by countback. “The question now for Smith is: can he do it two weekends in a row?” Wood said. “He’s still shown in flashes that he’s got that natural talent, because you don’t lose something like that. But it’s the consistency and being able to do it day after day throughout the tournament.”

For Gayer, the uncertainty was whether Basel had been “one of those good days where everything came together”, with pain potentially affecting Smith again the following week. “Or whether he’s actually found something again on the practice board, another good patch of form,” he added.

Smith and Bunting occupy the same quarter as Schindler, Sedlacek and newly crowned Swiss Darts Trophy champion Jonny Clayton. Several of the qualification contenders may have to beat one another before they can start looking at results elsewhere.

Schindler headed to Dortmund as the top seed in 2024 and second seed in 2025. Now, on £34,500, the German number one is trying to avoid missing his home major altogether. “He’s hanging on by a thread,” Wood said. “The way he’s playing, he doesn’t look like he’s going to be adding anything.”

His opening opponent will be Sedlacek or Rydz. Should Sedlacek win on Friday, the pair would meet with identical prize-money totals. A win for Schindler would lift him to £39,500; a win for Sedlacek would take the Czech player to £36,000 and leave Schindler waiting on the rest of the field.

Wood’s concern also extended to Schindler’s technique after watching footage of him at an earlier UK Open and comparing his grip with his current action. “There’s an obvious change to his throw, and it’s definitely something to talk about,” said Gayer, who follows the German players closely.

On Schindler’s chances in Maastricht, he agreed with Wood’s pessimistic assessment: “He will probably not add anything to his prize-money total. It will definitely be a close one for Martin in the race for Dortmund.”

Sedlacek reached the quarter-finals in Basel to move within striking distance. “I think we can say this is the best Karel Sedlacek we’ve ever seen on the PDC Tour,” Gayer said. “He’s in really good form and a really good spell of his career.”

Their possible meeting would not automatically eliminate the loser from the qualification race. Kim Huybrechts also starts the weekend on £34,500, while Menzies and Dave Chisnall have £37,000 apiece. Results involving those players could determine how many places remain available to the challengers.

Gurney and Bialecki meet in Friday’s opening round, ensuring one challenger will fall immediately. The winner then faces top seed and reigning European champion Gian van Veen.

For Gurney, even reaching the semi-finals would leave him on £32,000. He needs a place in Sunday’s final to have a chance of returning to Dortmund, where he reached the quarter-finals last year.

“He’s definitely searching for something. We’ve seen him trying glasses this year, but he seems to have dropped them again,” Wood said. “He’s looking for something to get back to that level, or at least stay around the level he’s at now.”

Gurney beat Michael van Gerwen at the World Series Finals in Amsterdam, although that non-ranking event offered no help towards qualification for Dortmund. Wood described the victory as “one of the highlights of the year for him”, but remained doubtful about a sustained run. “Gurney nowadays is one of those players where it wouldn’t be a surprise if he beat anyone, but he’s probably going to beat them and then lose in the next round.”

Gurney won the World Cup alongside Josh Rock last year, adding a team title to his World Grand Prix and Players Championship Finals victories. “He’d lost that spot among the absolute world’s elite, but he was still able to stay around 20th to 25th in the world rankings and make some good runs in major tournaments,” Gayer said. “This year feels like another step in the wrong direction.”

Gurney’s opportunity in Maastricht came through the reserve list following withdrawals from the original field. De Decker also received a place, keeping an even more demanding qualification route open.

De Decker must win the tournament to get above the current cutoff. He starts against Niels Zonneveld, with Krzysztof Ratajski waiting in round two. “A couple of months ago, I would have expected to see Mike picking up form again,” Gayer said. “I thought it was a limited patch of him struggling and searching for form. Now it’s turned into a huge problem.”

“I don’t think he changed supplier at a very good time, because he was at the peak of his powers,” Wood said of De Decker’s equipment switch. “He has one of the most beautiful throws in the game, just in terms of the action, so I think a lot of his problems are mental.

“The equipment switch might not be the problem itself, but it’s made him think about things, knocked his confidence and taken him out of the frame of mind that saw him become a Grand Prix champion.”

Gayer’s assessment went further: “I didn’t expect that crisis to last so long. Now I don’t think you can really call it a crisis any more. This is the current state of Mike De Decker.”

A runner-up finish in Maastricht would leave the Belgian on £26,500, still well short of Bunting’s starting total. Only the £35,000 winner’s cheque would give him a chance of returning to Dortmund.

Pietreczko also needs the title to move above the current qualification line. Last year’s Dortmund quarter-finalist opens against Heine Uuldriks, with late replacement Brendan Dolan awaiting the winner following Rob Cross’s withdrawal.

“Before the World Cup, he was averaging in the 60s and 70s and even forfeiting matches,” Gayer said. “It was good to see him back in the 90s quite often. He didn’t win that much, but he’s definitely fixed something in his game.”

Maastricht brings Pietreczko back onto the European Tour stage after those improved floor performances. “We’ll learn how his throw is looking: whether he’s changed something again, whether the struggles are back, or whether he’s completely free of them now,” Gayer said. “For Ricardo, it will be about finding his game again and getting match-fit for next season.”

For Gary Anderson and Joe Cullen, the qualification race is already over. Both are outside the top 32 and absent from Maastricht, ruling them out of the European Championship at the Westfalenhalle from 22–25 October.

The first movement around the cutoff could come much sooner than Sunday’s final. Sedlacek opens Friday’s afternoon session against Rydz, with Menzies against Kenny immediately afterwards. Schindler then opens Saturday’s afternoon session, while Bunting must wait until the evening to respond.