The World Grand Prix stat that could predict a shock winner as top five with best doubles confirmed

In no major does doubles count more than the World Grand Prix. Requiring a double to start and a double to end any leg, checkout percentages in history have made or broken events for players. In 2026 so far, the top five players are split by just 1.29% points in their checkout percentage, with the first in this list hitting 44.09% of his doubles.

Surprisingly, the odds don’t match this list to win the title, with the title sponsor Boyle Sports pricing the field on overall form rather than doubling ability alone. Therefore, does being the best doubler actually translate to success in Leicester next week, or is it a matter of whose form is going into the tournament?

2021 Champion Jonny Clayton has had a solid 2026, from beating Luke Littler for the first time in a TV major tournament last week and his Premier League second place consolidating the return of the ferret. What would top this return to greatness would be a major title, and he knows how to win it. Always clinical on the outer ring, Clayton has posted a 42.80% checkout percentage in 2026, and with a first nine average of 101.42 in this timeframe, he will need to rely on his doubles.

In the past, the World Grand Prix has resulted in mixed results, and only in his title-winning campaign in 2021 and his semi-final run last year has he overperformed this checkout percentage at the Grand Prix. This shows that when hitting his doubles at the same rate in this tournament compared to the rest of the year, Clayton makes it far. Last year, he lost to eventual champion Littler with a 43.5% checkout rate, and in the most recent quarter, he will walk into the Mattioli Arena with a better checkout rate of 44.13%.

Winning in Auckland earlier in the year, the Welshman has the ceiling to top fields with quality players and with an impressive Premier League campaign resulting in a semi-final heartbreak at the O2; he will want to pick up a major trophy to show his work. He may be fifth, but he is definitely the most dangerous player on this list due to his experience. In the last 5 appearances, his checkout percentage has slowly crept up, and with last week's semi-final, Clayton has a chance to right his wrongs.

His scoring is what may restrict access to the title. With an increased checkout percentage, he has seen his scoring fall, and to win the World Grand Prix, his scoring must be in line with doubles. 25/1 to win the title.

According to BOYLESPORTS, the odds are seeing his poor scoring as a weakness, and with players such as Luke Littler in the field with a first nine of 111.63, a 42.8% checkout rate won’t beat him. In 2025, he had a double in accuracy of 47.5%, meaning his leg started after the first dart, which is a title-winning return.

Facing Krzysztof Ratajski in the first round, the Welshman’s scoring may not be exposed, and Clayton could neutralize the Polish Eagle through beating him at his own game: doubles. Everything has the makings of a deep run: his form, doubles, and experience. But his scoring may limit this run to a quarter or semi-final, rather than picking up the Grand Prix title.

Gerwyn Price's addition on the list is a surprising one. Known for power scoring and often stumbling on doubles, including Double 20, even losing the final last week at the World Series of Darts due to his poor double rate, his 43.11% puts him fourth in this list.

What gives Price the edge is his first nine averages: 107.85. This synergy with strong doubles was the formula for Taylor and Van Gerwen’s success, leading to 17 titles of the 27 tournaments. With a five-year drought for a major title, how can his doubles lead him to success?

In the last two years, Gerwyn Price’s doubles have hovered above 42%, and in the last 3 months, a 43.25% checkout rate will put him in good positions to start legs and put pressure on opponents with his high scoring. Starting on D13 for a large portion of his 2025 run that saw him reach the quarter-finals, Price can often go on spurts of hitting doubles consecutively and then missing doubles.

This psychological blocker must be used effectively, as although the difference between Double 20 and Double 13 is 14 points, the difference between 0 and Double 13 is 26, a much more favorable return. Therefore, enhancing his run of successful doubles by going for any doubles is a useful strategy and plan B that might bring success.

Winning this tournament in 2020, beating Dirk Van Duijvenbode in the final, he has never produced a checkout percentage higher than his current 2026 rate of 43.11%. The highest was in that winning year, hitting 42.4% of his doubles, and with last year's rate of 37.4 whilst going into it with a similar checkout percentage of this year, there’s every argument to be made that the Iceman can win the title.

His last 5 years in this tournament have actually made up a large chunk of his ranking, with two runner-ups in 2021 and 2022, a semi-final in 2023, and a quarter-final in 2025. With Gerwyn Price in the best form he has been since his win in 2020, resulting in his 2021 World Championship title, it could be possible.

Gerwyn Price doesn’t just see the World Grand Prix as a chance for one title but a chance for a run in the last three months of 2026 to jump up to world number two. Defending £7,500 from 2024, a large run will capitalize on a genuine opportunity. This isn’t guaranteed, raising the question of how he gets an early exit, though?

In the first three round exits and his second round exit, he had a mean checkout percentage of 25.67%, showing that if he wants to avoid early exit, he’s got to at least have a checkout percentage of around 35+.

His strong scoring and average of 98.42 is above most players, meaning he can afford more missed doubles. But he can’t afford to not start the leg on his first visit. Reaching three finals is no mistake or fluke, and with his current form, the rounds where he was knocked out early look more unlikely than a semi-final. This is Gerwyn Price’s start-to-finish unfinished business: winning a major title after four years.

James Wade's resurgence has continued in 2026, and his place at the top of darts seems consolidated. After years of uncertainty in 2023 and 2024, the 2024 Matchplay Semi-Final has ignited two years of slow rebuilding, which has seen Wade pick up his first European tour title in over a decade at the Flanders darts trophy. A major title still evades him, and after three runner-up finishes against Luke Littler, a major that suits Wade’s strong finishing, especially on Double 20 and Double 10. Normally a strong finisher, Wade has averaged 96.58 in the last three months, and with the Australian Darts Masters win, it seems the next three months are essential to get him back into the Premier League for the first time since 2023.

Leicester, therefore, is a chance for Wade, and with the 43.42% checkout rate, the 2010 winner has every chance to replicate that run. Being stubborn on his doubles selection benefits Wade, as his preference of Double 20 and persistence help him build into a rhythm in the Grand Prix, which has brought him so much success. Hitting this double 45.45% of the time in the last 6 months, and its counterpart double 10 over half, he finds himself in a better position than most to start and finish legs.

Although Wade’s ceiling may not be as high as the two Lukes, his floor makes him so dangerous. In his European Tour 13 run, he didn’t drop below a 95 average, and in all his title-winning matches, Wade hasn’t dropped below 93.5. This floor will sweep past opponents because that level of consistency, in a double-in format that produces the most psychological tension on stage, can actually win the Machine the title. In the case of the Two Lukes, both lost last week with an average below 100. Although a large gap, with Wade’s solid 96.48 consistent average against a volatile Humphries who seems frustrated at every dart he throws and a fed-up Littler who didn’t play the darts to the level he knows he could have in Amsterdam last week, Wade could fancy the title.

The form is peaking, but with his experience, he may not need the form. 21 appearances and two wins is a rich history, but the last of these wins was in 2010: 16 years ago. The best performance in recent years was in 2024, reaching the quarter-finals. In the midst of this, seven first-round exits in the last ten years don’t spell out experience, but rather his two wins were flashes in the pan. What’s honest, Wade and darts were different in 2010, and he was one of the best players in this era. Now, Wade is an underdog, and at odds of 25/1, he needs to prove not just the bookmakers wrong, but also Matthew Porter. The deciding leg average of 107.36 in the last three months is the number that matters most. Nobody in this field closes legs under pressure better right now. Two titles here were built on exactly that quality. The bookmakers have priced the history. They may have underpriced what is happening in 2026.

Last year, Nijman was ranked 29th in the world and was dumped out of the first round of the World Grand Prix 2-1 to an out-of-form Rob Cross. Next week, Nijman will walk into the Mattioli as the 12th seed and will seek to find some major form. Everything of the sky cameras has been top class for the Dutchman: six PDC titles, 110+ averages, and beating the top players consistently. Currently the number one seed on tour by £46,000, the case of Nijman has been the same in the last two years; can he translate from form to TV?

Slowly, Nijman has become better and better, winning European tours on a stage similar to the size of the Grand Prix and a Matchplay last 16 losing to Van Veen in a 26-classic, edged through a monstrous 148 checkout from his fellow Dutchman and possible World Cup partner next year. But he will know as much as we know that his TV form hasn’t put him in the right conversations. With Nijman’s form and domination on the floor, he should be almost guaranteed a Premier League spot next year. The World Grand Prix is the next opportunity to put his name in front of the brightest cameras.

A 43.50% checkout percentage for a player known for his power scoring is seriously impressive. Improving from 40.62% 18 months ago to a strong 43.50%, this improvement shows a player that didn’t have a purple patch, but a player whose last 2 years have been his prime. Mixed with a first nine of 105.49, Nijman, similar to Price, will have ways to beat opponents. Clayton and Wade will beat opponents through their doubles, as their scoring won’t put pressure on opponents compared to Nijman.

Last year, Rob Cross beat Nijman with a disappointing performance, finishing just 7 of his 23 chances at doubles, over 13% lower than his seasonal average. Not just this, an average of 84.60 and key missed darts at doubles spelled out a really disappointing result. He can’t afford this to happen, and Nijman, despite being World Number 12, is still an unknown. Due to playing in events with “watered down” fields, Nijman still hasn’t been at his best consistently against the elite. This tournament should give him the opportunity to prove his worth against the best, in front of everyone, and put his name in the mix of the Premier League.

Qualifying fifteenth from sixteen available spots with just 84 qualifying points, one place and 2.75 points above the cutoff, Bialecki earned his debut appearance the hard way. Chisnall finished fourteenth with 87.5 points and was nearly pushed out himself. The margin between Bialecki being in Leicester and watching from home was razor thin, and yet here he is, seeded into the draw and facing Gerwyn Price in the first round.

That is the matchup that defines everything for the Pole. Price averages 98.42 and scores at a level Bialecki simply cannot match, with his 93.42 average in the most recent quarter sitting five points below the Iceman. But the World Grand Prix does not always reward the better scorer. It rewards the better finisher, and Bialecki's 44.09% checkout against Price's 43.11% is the statistical basis for an upset.

At 22 years old, in his first major PDC appearance, with a PC26 title already on his CV and a checkout rate that has improved 8.55 percentage points in twelve months, Bialecki is not a 200/1 no-hoper. He is a debut player with the best doubles in the field who qualified by the skin of his teeth and drew the hardest possible first-round opponent. If the debut nerves stay away and the doubles land, the biggest upset of the first round is more possible than the bookmakers are suggesting.