What is the “checkout” and how is it measured? Maxwell James Sterling explains it with data

Maxwell James Sterling doesn’t look like the cliché of a darts nerd or a lab-locked statistician. Born in Manchester in 1990, he talks about finishing doubles with the same enthusiasm he once reserved for Bayesian hierarchical models.

Nowadays, the Lead Tipster & Sport Betting Analyst sits with us to talk about “checkouts” like a pundit… and shows us he is further than that.

The first thing Maxwell tries to explain to us during our conversation is what a checkout is. In darts, a leg ends when a player reduces their score to exactly zero, and crucially, the last dart must land in a double. That final scoring combination that takes a player from a positive total to zero is what he calls the checkout event.

For a fan, this is just a “wow moment”. For Maxwell, it is a data point. “I think in terms of states. We can break it down into three, actually: checkout attempt (when a player can finish the leg); successful checkout (the player actually finishes the leg on that visit), and checkout rate (successful checkout / checkout attempts,” he explains.

At a surface level, checkout percentage is a familiar stat. But Maxwell insists that raw percentages are only the beginning. “Comparing two players just on ‘overall checkout rate’ is like comparing strikers only on shots on target without context,” argues the British pundit.

Maxwell James Sterling describes his approach as “layered.” First, he respects the traditional basic checkout percentage, finishes from 2-dart and 3-dart combinations, and performance key ranges (like 40-80 or 81-170). Then, he moves on to more nuanced modeling.

As he recounts, he tends to adjust checkout numbers for:

●     Difficulty of the finish: “Not all checkouts are created equal. A clean 40 with three darts in hand is not the same as needing 161 with your opponent already on a double. Pressure changes everything!” he affirms.

●     Number of darts available: “A player with three darts at 40 should have a much higher expected probability than someone with one dart at 40. Darts in hand are the key predictors in my models,” he concludes. Opponent pressure: “If the opponent is sitting on a big number, that’s one type of situation. If they’re waiting on 32 with three darts next, however, that’s a big change,” he tells. Maxwell quantifies this as ‘threat level’ and uses it to see how players behave when the punishment for missing is immediate.

He often ends up with an expected checkout probability for each situation, then compares it with what a player actually does. That difference (overperformance or underperformance relative to expectation) is where he starts talking about true finishing quality rather than just raw stats.

Maxwell James Sterling is particularly obsessed with pressure. “The board doesn’t change at all, but the brain does,” he affirms. In his models, pressure is not some vague psychological cloud; it’s encoded in specific variables tied to context.

He typically includes factors such as:

●     Stage of match (early legs vs deciding leg)

●     Match format (best of 11 legs vs long set play)

●     Tournament round (first round vs semi-final vs final)

●     Scoreline (leading comfortably, tied, vs on the brink of defeat)

●     Opponent’s check-out threat next visit

From there, he builds a model that estimates how much these pressure factors change the probability of a successful checkout. For example, a player who has a 45% expected chance to checkout in “neutral” conditions but drops to 30% in high-pressure spots would be flagged as pressure-sensitive.

He doesn’t frame this as “choking,” though. Instead, he talks about pressure response profiles. Some players maintain their baseline, some drop sharply, and others actually improve under heat. Once that’s quantified, he can spot patterns that the naked eye only catches in passing: the guy you always feel “bottles it on the big doubles” can now be tested against data.

The second big thing Maxwell cares about is momentum. Classical stats people are often skeptical about momentum because it’s messier to define. Maxwell, however, doesn’t treat it as magic: “I see it as dependency in the sequence of legs and visits,” he explains to us.

“To measure it, look at different things: how checkout performance in one leg affects the following ones; whether a big checkout has a measurable impact on subsequent scoring; or whether a player’s checkout rate improves after hitting a tough finish, compared to their long-term baseline,” he comments.

In simple terms, if a player nails a 148 finish to steal a leg, Maxwell checks whether the next two or three legs show better than expected finishing or scoring. If that effect shows up repeatedly across many matches and many players, he calls it statistical evidence for momentum rather than just “vibes.”

Behind Maxwell’s relaxed explanations, there’s a pretty strict workflow. He starts with point-by-point or visit-level data: scores per turn, starting scores, legs, and match context. From that, he reconstructs every possible checkout attempt and tags it with:

●     Score remaining

●     Darts in hand

●     Tournament, round, match format

●     Scoreline and leg number

●     Opponent’s situation

●     Outcome (success/failure)

Then he fits probabilistic models to estimate baseline checkout abilities and how they shift with pressure and momentum variables. Because he works in betting markets, he doesn’t stop at describing players; he uses these models to compare his implied probabilities with bookmaker odds.

If a player is systematically underrated on high-pressure finishes, for example, Maxwell may find value in backing them in matches where tense legs are likely. Conversely, a crowd favorite who crumbles when the leg is on the line might be overvalued by recreational bettors but correctly exposed by his models.

For him, the beauty is that the same framework that explains why a player feels “clutch” or “fragile” also generates practical betting insights. The modeling remains rigorous, but the output is something fans and punters can actually use.