ANALYSIS - Odds Against: Five underdogs who could go deep at World Matchplay in Blackpool

The World Matchplay starts this weekend with multiple debutants, but also returning faces who are in a lot better form than they were previously when they played in Blackpool and could feasibly spring shocks.

From Luke Woodhouse who is finally a title winner, down to Cameron Menzies post his World Darts Championship meltdown. Both and others in our five underdogs list are very much players who have figured in the fabric of Blackpool folklore before. But for most of these names, they have points to prove and given the form of the elite players they will be facing, could be a surefire bet to win games. Here are our five underdogs to watch at this year's World Matchplay and why the data backs up the potential for them to cause upsets.

Woodhouse’s 2026 has been phenomenal, and he goes into Blackpool a danger to anyone. Three Players Championship finals, one win, eight European Tour appearances, one win. Since his switch to integrated, all-in-one flights, his form has only gone up, and he currently sits at a career high 18th, just £34,750 from a seeded position. Despite all these achievements, Woodhouse is sitting at 66/1 for the title according to Betfred, the World Matchplay’s title sponsor. Facing Josh Rock, first-round matches can’t come much harder at the Winter Gardens, facing last year's semi-finalist. But how does he prove these odds wrong?

Averaging 95.94 in 2026, Woodhouse, by this metric, is playing the 11th-best darts in the world, and in 2026, it could be argued he’s been playing better than the 11th-best darts. What’s promising, his average tends to increase in finals, and higher-pressure matches are seen hugely in his maiden PDC title, beating Andrew Gilding at the Players Championship 18 with a 102.04 average. Betfred have misjudged Woodhouse, as the odds aren’t reflecting his 2026 form. Two titles before Blackpool isn’t 66/1, showing the bookies are pricing history rather than his current level. What does his history suggest?

One win from two appearances suggests Blackpool hasn't yet seen the best of Woodhouse. In 2024, he lost to an injured Nathan Aspinall 8-10 with a 92.28 average, missing out on a real opportunity to make his mark on the second biggest major in darts. 2025 would hold fonder for the Bewdley thrower, winning his first game against Dave Chisnall 10-6 with a stronger 95.42 average, and a 98.61 average against Humphries in defeat showed clear improvement. Although he has not yet broken a 100 average at the Winter Gardens, his 2026 first nine average means he arrives at doubles quicker than last year, giving him a greater opportunity. This is key against Rock, who holds this quality but to a greater standard. Woodhouse’s combination shots have been key, and will continue this way at the Matchplay, meaning the upset is on the cards.

In the context of leg play, Woodhouse’s elite 69.33% on throw leg win percentage means that holding the throw is pivotal for the path to victory and that has been a great attribute. Woodhouse has spoken about his belief that major titles are coming: 'just a matter of time', he told Online Darts, and the Matchplay represents exactly that opportunity. A win percentage of 66% in 2026 and a strong World Championship prove he can produce on the top stages. Furthermore, his European Tour title proves trophies can have his name written on them in the PDC, and with a strong field at European Tour 8, the Matchplay isn’t far dissimilar.

Josh Rock is seeded at eight, but his 2026 numbers don’t justify confidence. Woodhouse has averaged more, won more, and improved more. A rough Premier League wasn’t completely forgotten about, but his green jacket from the Austrian Darts Open helped temper this memory. The underdog doesn't just have a chance to nick the match; he has a chance to do it with a performance that surprises everyone. With a 51% win rate, Rock hasn’t tasted victory as much as Woodhouse in 2026, and this may continue going into Blackpool.

Making his debut at the Winter Gardens, Zonneveld has been in hot form in 2026. Similar to Woodhouse, 2026 has brought the best out of the Dutchman, making two finals and a semi-final on tour during his breakthrough year. Of the five players on this list, Zonneveld holds the greatest attribute the tournament could offer; his on-throw leg win percentage is highest at 69.43%. This means that when starting legs, Zonneveld often performs best and has held this throw almost seven out of ten times, statistically meaning he would go into the second break 7-3 up.

Although stats don’t often mean success, encouraging signs going into a debut year could offer confidence that could be few and far between stepping into Blackpool for the first time. This is why his odds are so low: 150/1 is a bookie's prediction that he will step onto the Winter Gardens stage and disappoint, adapting to a tighter venue full of real darts fans. With an against throw percentage the lowest in the list, this also argues that although he may hold throw, in games where he will need to break, a 39.59% is a concern. There have been examples of disappointments in the last few years, with Ritchie Edhouse in 2024 coming off red hot and even Woodhouse’s debut, but Zonneveld is different.

The Dutchman beat Michael Smith at the 2026 World Darts Championship, igniting his presence in the darts world. Although losing to Jonny Clayton 3-4 in the next round, this match went to 21 legs, and this is a key stat. Zonneveld gained huge experience from not only beating Smith, who was seeded 29th, but also losing in a similar-length match to a World Matchplay match. The difference with translating tour onto stage is fatigue: the tour demands quickfire performances where a 6-0 win could be finished within 10-15 minutes.

The stage demands timing, and with Zonneveld driving the 5th seed to a last leg that went to the wire, his improvement isn't just tangible when no-one's watching; it’s tangible when the world’s watching. That changes the picture, as a 21-leg thriller closes the gap of uncertainty. He’s underpriced, and the left-hander is underloved. A more unorthodox throw with a reliance on movement rather than stability, he’s managed 267 180s and will need a large portion of those to overpower his opponent, Stephen Bunting. A strong first nine average with 104, currently 18th best in the world, he has earned £113,500 in 2026, just £40,000 shy of his opponent, who is ranked 8th in the world. From his position in the world, Zonneveld’s matchplay will be seen as a stepping stone. Every win is valuable and could be argued means more to Bunting. The £10,000 from round one to round two would contribute further to Zonneveld’s 2026 due to players around him dropping money off the rankings or not even competing at Blackpool. Bunting’s position barely moves, meaning Zonneveld may come out swinging from the second the referee shouts “game on”.

This doesn't undermine Bunting’s success, and lack of, in Blackpool. He’s got something to prove, and at 33/1, it could be argued he’s also undervalued. A higher average at 95.18 compared to Dutchman's 94.07, he’s definitely in a better position. Yet, his inconsistency and Zonneveld’s red-hot form mean that a 150/1 doesn’t just undervalue Zonneveld; it disrespects him. With the aforementioned Luke Woodhouse or Josh Rock in the mix, the victor of this game could fancy a deep run.

Surviving brain surgery, the Polish Eagle comes into the World Matchplay injury-free and ready to cause damage. Diagnosed with cerebral aneurysms, he played 2025 with these and in 2026, he plays without this weight on his shoulders. And this can be seen so far, with an elite 94.99 bringing it ot the best players, and a strong win percentage of 61% showing that these averages translate to results. “My life was in real danger. The probability of my death was very high”, Ratajski said, cold-faced at the PDC World Darts Championship.

Ratajski doesn’t celebrate often, but every win seems to be bigger after such a life-threatening injury, and this poor 2025 can give 2026 a real opportunity. His 2026 earnings already surpass his 2025 earnings of £159,000, meaning that defending money isn’t a problem and every opportunity is now a possibility to build further up in the rankings. The former 2021 World Matchplay semi-finalist has a real opportunity to make history for Poland again, as his 2026 figures have been the strongest of his post-surgery career. The 18th-best average means that the brain surgery isn’t just a background colour, but it’s the most important context for understanding what this major represents.

For the first time since his surgery, Ratajski arrives at a major two wins away from the final, injury-free. His passion has visibly increased, with his celebrations during the 2026 World Championship run to the quarter-final showing a rawness rarely seen from him before. “I usually don’t celebrate often, but when the match is very close… I have to show how I feel”, repeatedly showing that every win means more because of what’s on the line. At a peak rank of 12th on the PDC order of merit, there is a gap for Ratajski to find himself in that position in a year, being injury-free, and the Matchplay offers a real opportunity.

Ratajski missed out on a trip to Blackpool in July 2025, missing out for the first time since 2018. Although a semi-final and a quarter-final may direct a positive record for the 49-year-old, he hasn’t got past the second round since his semi-final run in 2021. It’s been years since his best, with his highest average of 107.53 coming 6 years ago. His World Championship run this year, despite the 0-5 loss to eventual Champion Luke Littler, had positive signs. Two games that went beyond 18 legs showed fatigue won’t impact his game, and beating serious quality such as Luke Woodhouse showed his level on stage can maintain a high level.

Over the years, he has a 6-5 record at the Winter Gardens, meaning he walks onto the stage winning more times than he’s lost, which translates to confidence and experience. His passion has visibly increased, with his celebrations during the 2026 World Championship run to the quarter-final showing a rawness rarely seen from him before. Other positive areas of 2026 have come in the form of a Players Championship semi-final at Players Championship 2, a European Tour semi-final at European Tour 5 and a quarter-final at the UK Open, showing he’s not only physically prepared for the World Matchplay, but he’s also mentally prepared.

Draws don’t come harder than the third seed Gian Van Veen, and with two wins in favour of the Dutchman against Ratajski, he’ll need to find an extra gear. This is far from a forgone conclusion, as his experience and slower pace will make him an exhausting assignment for Van Veen, who has had a troubled start to his 2026 and needs to prove himself. The 150/1 value looks promising if he gets past Van Veen, going against either Dobey or Van Duijvenbode in a match that the bookies may even favour him. Although Van Veen has won most encounters, these have come in first-to-six-leg matches. With his methodical pacing, a long leg format may put the odds towards Ratajski, especially with Van Veen’s struggling form on the tour. 150/1 is calculated on Ratajski’s ranking, not the player himself.

Snubbed from a Premier League place, Danny Noppert’s resurgent 2026 hasn’t gone the way he may have wanted. Two World Series invites at the start of the year ended in disappointment, winning just one match and excluding himself from future World Series events. This 2025 form hasn't carried over into 2026 as cleanly as expected, with his 2025 Grand Slam semi-final run feeling like a distant memory given his 2026 performances.

His average for this year sits at 94.57, 22nd in the world, and a 64% win percentage means that from this list, Noppert is statistically backed to go furthest. A European Tour Final at ET4 and Players Championship Semi-Final at PC17 show Noppert can still produce, but not at the level we’ve come to expect. “I can’t say I don’t want to be number 1 in the world”; he said last year. The endeavour is there, but the performances haven’t aligned with this.

In majors, Danny Noppert has achieved a UK Open quarter-final, beating Luke Humphries on the way 10-6 with a strong 95.08 average, presenting a strong opportunity against his opponent Rob Cross. Although a former semi-finalist in 2022, his story is similar to Ratajski’s; this is the anomaly, and came four years ago. With just a second round outside of this, he comes into the Winter Gardens with a losing record of 5-6; he’s got something to prove.

Moreover, his 2026 World Championship ended in disappointment with a second-round loss to Justin Hood; he needs to focus on the positives. “I’m really happy with how my throwing style functions under long matchplay distances,” he told OnlineDarts, and, in addition to a 44.03% against-throw percentage, he creates high-quality opportunities to break the throw that most players in the draw can’t match. A ceiling exists, seen in 2022, but he’ll need to find the 2025 Noppert to replicate this, with Rob Cross the player hoping this version doesn’t turn up.

Rob Cross qualified comfortably for the Matchplay after doubts about turning up, but a European Tour final at the Slovak Darts Open, as well as breaking an 18-month winning drought at Players Championship 22, means that, despite Noppert being the seed, the 2019 Champion may be favoured. Similar to Noppert, Cross is looking for a major spark after falling below the top 20 in the world. 66/1 undervalues Noppert significantly, but this match shapes up as one of the most evenly contested of the first round regardless of who goes through

Cameron Menzies faces the second-best player in the world, Luke Humphries, in the first round. First rounds don’t come much harder, but if Menzies was ever to cause an upset, it would be now. Following the 2026 World Championship incident against Charlie Manby, which put his darts career into jeopardy, after widespread calls for his tour card to be revoked and three months of absence on tour, Menzies thought it was over.

“I thought I was done. I made a mistake... Two or three months ago I was putting my CV back up; it's legit true... I genuinely thought my darts were spiralling. I never thought I'd win one of these again,” he emotionally told OnlineDarts. The months leading up to the World Matchplay look as if he’d never had this injury. A 92.07 average, the lowest on this list, his against-throw percentage is the highest of all five players on this list, and with a strong World Cup representing Scotland, he’ll look at the World Matchplay as an opportunity to forget and move forward.

Filled with emotion, Menzies has been forced to switch his approach to darts, and since the 2026 Worlds incident, he’s looked more composed. Two World Matchplay appearances, two losses, but a Players Championship 23 win defined a moment that changed his 2026. Arriving at the Winter Gardens with something no other player in this list has: freedom. Three months ago, he was updating his CV. Now he is a Players Championship winner, a full-time professional, and the most emotionally liberated player in the draw. Humphries has shown occasional inconsistency even at his level, and one bad visit against a player breaking throw at that rate can change a match entirely. At 150/1, the odds price near-certain defeat. The data and the momentum suggest something closer to an upset waiting to happen.