ANALYSIS (Part 3): Players at major risk of losing their Tour Card led by multiple major winning Dreammaker and former major finalist

Part two spotlighted players teetering on the edge of losing their Tour Card. Part three sees a big name Belgian spotlighted who has gone from multiple major wins and elite status to chasing his future.

Also featured includes a former Grand Slam of Darts finalist and a rising star who perhaps may be gaining form at the wrong time to keep his Tour Card. Running through the statistics behind where it is going right and wrong for each of these players, in particular the latter the race will be on in the coming months to keep ahold of their coveted Tour Cards.

This after another part in which it saw the opposite looked at from Beau Greaves to Tom Sykes among others who have made real splashes in their first year or so on the tour and look set to head towards the top 64 before long.

Dimitri Van den Bergh is the highest-ranked player on this list, 37th in the PDC order of merit. Winning his card in 2014, Van den Bergh has experienced 12 years on the PDC tour, and it may come to an end for the Belgian. The ranking number currently sitting next to him is lagging behind a collapse that is underway. £231,000 looks completely safe until you remove 2024. Yet, this picture was so different in 2023, winning £442,000 in this year alone, whilst winning the World Matchplay 3 years earlier.

A strong 93.59 average with the 15th most 180s in the world, with 453, presenting his smooth game littered with big scores and finishes, the Premier League was still on the horizon. However, 2025 only had a 9-darter at the Winmau World Masters, with the Dreammaker winning just £74,500 in prize money and missing out on the Players Championship finals in Minehead. If his tour card accumulated money in 2025 and 2026 like Hopp, he would sit below Hopp in 68th place, with £95.5k.

Van den Bergh has gone from a force to be reckoned with to a player everyone will want to draw at a Player Championship event. Struggling with dartitis and confidence within his game, the Antwerp man’s average has fallen to 88.44 in 2026, and with this, he has missed every major except the UK Open, World Championships and World Cup. In 2023, he played all of them.

The most damning evidence comes in two results: a 71.38 average in the European Tour qualifier and 76.61 in Players Championship Three. This means that putting him in a competitive amateur environment, he would struggle and could potentially lose with that average. Not just that, his best result has been a Players Championship 17 last 16, where he still went out to Wattimena with an average of 78.6. Once a player who could outscore his opponents, Van den Bergh has hit the 157th most 180s this year, losing to players in this metric that aren’t even on tour. What seems to have been going better in these last months, after remarks from most significantly ex-professional and commentator Matthew Edgar that he’d been practising for hours after tournaments, the results, or really the performances, haven’t improved. What has improved is the throwing action itself, looking closer to his 2023 fluency.

This doesn’t produce results and won’t stop 2024’s £135,700 rolling off the ranking. There’s still a player with a 2025 Masters semi-final beating World Champions Michael van Gerwen and Gary Anderson to get there. But that was over a year ago, and the standard of players coming through in the top 64 is improving, with the aforementioned Hopp, Crabtree, and Plaisier all competing. A recent European Tour win in Kiel must be a turning point for Van Den Bergh, as it is now a non-negotiable that he must turn his season around and wake up from the nightmare of the Dreammaker.

Quitting a day job to pursue a career in darts is a risk that needs to be calculated thoroughly before making a decision. Lukeman made this decision in 2022 and, in the same year, had his best performance, finishing 17th on the European Tour Order of Merit and reaching the finals of the German Darts Grand Prix. Such a risk after winning his tour card in 2021 paid off and didn’t stop going into 2024. A career highlight followed, with a Grand Slam finalist losing heavily to current World Number 1 Luke Littler 3-16 in the final. On his way there, though, Lukeman produced a brace of impressive wins against Rob Cross, averaging 98.34 in the quarter-finals, and then 99.66 in the semi-final against Ireland’s Mickey Mansell. This is now the backbone of his ranking, with the £73,500 contributing to 34% of his £216,250 ranking money. Although his greatest achievement, it is now his greatest vulnerability. Being so dependent on an event over 18 months ago, his 2026 form suggests defending it is beyond him.

“Struggling a little bit with my darts, swapping and changing”, Lukeman admitted, and with this hesitation, dartitis has crept into his game. With an unorthodox throwing routine, throwing the dart from above his eye, Lukeman has been looking vulnerable in matches in 2026. A win percentage fall from 54% in 2025 to 28% in 2026 is the most dramatic single-year drop of all players on this list. His woes don’t end here, with a 2026 average of 85.21 putting him 259th in the world in this metric and 289th in the world with 180s. Lukeman’s level is no longer adequate for tour, and with the anxiety of 2024’s prize money coming off, Smash could find himself falling outside of the top 64.

His biggest quality remains his checkout percentage, where in 2024, he had the 6th best at an elite 42.08%, 2026, showing 38.04%. The only analytical positive in an otherwise bleak picture is his composure on doubles and scoring, especially in deciding legs, with averages sitting 10 points above his overall average. This is a quality that, although it won’t compensate for the broader decline, will compensate to an extent. He hasn’t lost his nerve at the end of his legs, but rather the start of his legs is where Lukeman looks most vulnerable, leaving him exposed as soon as the leg begins.

Fifteen first-round exits on the pro tour in 2026, combined with dartitis, is the recipe for losing a tour card. A UK open last 16 is a rare bright spot for Lukeman and might keep him afloat for another year, and a relatively strong 2025 with £74,500 on his ranking might keep him safe. Lukeman’s tour card now seems dependent on securing a place at Alexandra Palace, to which he is currently £13,500 away and must qualify for this to secure his place. At 41, the crossroads he faces could be defined by losing his card entirely.

Young Londoner Crabtree has had fans talking about his future, but this has overlooked his current situation, which looks as if he may struggle to retain his tour card. World Number 69, Shazam has shown flashes of brilliance in his debut tour card, but the majority of this came in 2025. 80% of his £91,250 coming from 2025, Crabtree made huge inroads, with a Players Championship 22 semi-final and Players Championship 33 quarter-final with regular 100+ averages.

Most striking about Crabtree’s game, his lay-up shots have ranked nearer to the top 32 than the top 64, with a functional doubles percentage (tracks how often a player hits their target double on the exact visit they need it, ignoring misses when they have a massive lead) of 47.24%, putting Crabtree under minimal pressure to finish legs. This allowed him to dominate the Challenge tour in 2024, and 2025 results show that he could make the step. 2026 results ask that same question again.

Crabtree has suffered this year so far, with his average dropping to 89.63 in the process, and a first nine of just 97.65. Promisingly, his functional doubles percentage almost remains at 46.95%, meaning his greatest quality hasn’t left, rather the metrics where improvement was expected have declined. 13 first round exits. No European Tour. Crabtree has created a situation that 2025 tried to avoid, and he must find his best. This has been demonstrated on occasions, with a 107.68 average in a win against recent European Tour winner Luke Woodhouse, and a 106.85 average against the Polish Eagle Ratajski in a 6-4 win, yet this hasn’t been produced consistently.

To keep his card, the 22-year-old must stop playing on the development tour, as he has failed to fully transition from development-level competition. Although it may maintain his sharpness, this doesn’t offer ranking money, and that’s what the remaining 6 months need. Will this be a learning curve for the young darter, or can Crabtree climb his way into the top 64?