"If an amateur doesn’t regularly manage a 90 average then there’s pretty much no point even entering": £501,000 on the line but can anyone beat Luke Littler? Paul Nicholson weighs in
PDCSaturday, 01 August 2026 at 06:00
The live event titled Beat Luke Littler is an opening gambit from Netflix into the darting arena and will be streamed on Friday October 30. It will feature 20 amateur players all hoping to topple 'The Nuke' who is barely beatable in the main darting arena no mind against amateurs.
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Anyone can enter and if their application is successful, they will be invited to regional heats in London and Manchester. It is not certain what the format will be, but given that it will be 20 players it is likely to be short form.
Paul Nicholson said that he wasn't sure if a handicap system was going to be introduced, but hopes that it won't be to make the victory if it happens seem more legitimate.
"I’m not sure if there’s going to be any stipulation such as a handicap based on his opponent’s ability, such as Luke Littler starting on 1001 in a one-off leg for example," said Nicholson in his column for Sporting Life.
"But it won’t be made too easy with £501,000 on the line. Also, don’t underestimate how good the best amateur players in the country are. There are some fantastic players out there who have never turned professional for a whole range of reasons and if the format isn’t too long, they will believe they have a chance.
"I do hope there’s no handicap and it’s best-of-three legs to make a victory seem a lot more legitimate. Imagine how much pressure there would be on the contender if they win a leg and knows they’re one away from £501,000?! So it's a lot more anxiety-driven, and there's a lot more edge-of-the-seat action if it's best of three or best of five."
How does an amateur beat Littler?
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But as someone who upset the biggest name at the time in Phil Taylor in his heyday, Nicholson knows what it is like to upset the apple cart. He was a professional though so what will it seriously take for Littler to be defeated in this format as 'The Asset' delved into the myriad of factors needed to take the win.
"If Littler is fully prepared and taking it seriously then his opponents will need to be good enough to take out a 12-darter. Across the whole of the World Matchplay – in which he played 107 legs – all but eight of them were over in 15 darts or less! There wasn’t any leg in the entire tournament in which he threw 20 or more darts so that puts it into perspective how good you need to be to win a leg from him!
"And that’s if you want to hold throw. If you want to break him, more often than not you’ll need to do it in three or four visits! There's gonna be an off-leg every now and again. There was in the final. There was one off-leg. Just one. And 27 legs were played under immense pressure in the second biggest major of them all.
"What we perceive as good darts is not good to him. He's got a different level. Even if he was given 1001 to take out, he could comfortably do that in 30 darts – and that would trouble most pub players starting on 501!"
Luke Littler makes darting history.
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"If an amateur doesn’t regularly manage a 90 average then there’s pretty much no point even entering. The last time he was beaten in the ranked major, he averaged 97. And that’s an off day. When was the last time he lost to a mid-80s? It’s extremely rare. So you are going to have to be a 95-average player on your best day."
But can anyone beat him? Nicholson thinks that unless a novelty handicap system gets introduced it is very much unlikely that Littler falters in this and that it will be more of an intrigue than a possibility.
“Bearing in mind that Dirk van Duijvenbode was 25/1 to beat Littler at the World Matchplay, then you’ve got to be looking at 100/1 minimum. Even if it is best of 3 legs or best of 5 legs.
Can an amateur beat Luke Littler?
"However, if it is just a one leg shoot out, then I'd possibly make it 50/1. It's going to be fascinating to see the standard of the players that come through the auditions to take him on, but unless it's one leg with a novelty handicap system, I think it's highly unlikely anyone will beat him."
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Samuel GillChief Content Officer
Samuel Gill is the Chief Content Officer (CCO) of DartsNews.com, a role he has held since 2020. He is responsible for editorial governance across the platform, including setting content standards, overseeing accuracy and consistency, and guiding long-term editorial strategy across professional darts coverage. Since joining, he has contributed more than 10,000 articles and editorial pieces, playing a central role in the development and daily operation of the site.
Based in Leicester, Samuel has extensive experience in darts media and has been closely involved in coverage of the professional darts circuit for several years. Within the UK darts community, he is a recognised figure known for his consistent editorial output and ongoing reporting on major tournaments and developments across the PDC calendar.
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