ANALYSIS: Van Gerwen and Wright facing major ranking slides as Tour Card danger looms for Van den Bergh and Van Barneveld

Sunday, 25 January 2026 at 15:30

Michael van Gerwen & Raymond van Barneveld (2)

As the PDC enters the 2026 season, the Order of Merit is approaching a pressure point that extends far beyond who can challenge Luke Littler at the very top. Using projected rankings based on rolling prize money and current performance trends, the numbers point toward a far harsher reality beneath the elite layer of the sport.

Former world champions are no longer insulated from meaningful drops. Recent major winners are drifting toward the Tour Card cut-off. And at least one established name is already projected to fall off the tour altogether.

This is not about form or opinion. It is about what the ranking system would deliver by the end of the 2026 season if recent patterns continue.

World champions at risk of major slides

Michael van Gerwen

Projected end of 2026 season ranking: 20

Van Gerwen’s projected position is the most striking figure on the table. After more than a decade spent entrenched at the very top of the sport, a drop to 20th would represent a structural shift rather than a temporary dip in form.

While his 2025 season still included a televised title, the broader trend is unavoidable. The volume of deep ranking major runs that once defined his dominance has thinned, and large sums earned earlier in the cycle are beginning to roll off without being fully replaced.

A ranking of 20 would mean:

no seeding protection at majors,
consistently tougher early-round draws,
and a complete change in competitive status.

For Van Gerwen, this would not simply be a slide. It would redefine his position within the modern PDC hierarchy.

Peter Wright

Projected end of 2026 season ranking: 32

Wright’s projection places him outside the top 32, a line that carries both symbolic and practical weight in the current structure.

His 2025 season offered only limited evidence of the sustained major runs required to offset expiring world-title prize money. Early exits at televised events became more common, while the sort of repeatable deep runs that once guaranteed security were largely absent.

A ranking in the low 30s would mean:

loss of automatic seeding,
greater qualification pressure,
and heavier reliance on ProTour accumulation.

It would mark the definitive end of Wright’s era as a protected elite player.

Rob Cross

Projected end of 2026 season ranking: 24

Cross’s projected drop is less dramatic but no less significant. Falling to 24th would place him firmly in the chasing pack rather than among the sport’s established leaders.

His recent seasons have been defined by volatility. Strong weeks and isolated wins followed by early exits that prevent momentum from compounding. In a ranking system that rewards accumulation over spikes, that inconsistency carries consequences.

At 24th, Cross would still be competitive, but without any meaningful safety buffer. Every major run would matter disproportionately, and one poor year could quickly escalate into a larger problem.

Big names who could be at risk of losing their Tour Card with a disaster year

Dimitri Van den Bergh

Projected end of 2026 season ranking: 51

Van den Bergh’s projection places him just 13 places above the Tour Card cut-off. That margin is far thinner than it appears.

Disrupted seasons, reduced volume, and a lack of sustained deep runs at ranking majors have left him exposed. At 51st, one poor year would immediately pull him into a genuine survival fight.

For a former Matchplay champion and Premier League regular, that level of insecurity would represent a dramatic shift in status.

Van den Bergh's Tour Card could be at risk sooner rather than later

Raymond van Barneveld

Projected end of 2026 season ranking: 39

Van Barneveld is not yet in immediate danger, but 39th is a precarious place to reside long-term. Without a deep World Championship run, his ranking security depends on grinding results rather than protected status.

Another quiet season would pull him rapidly toward the 50s, where qualification itself becomes uncertain rather than assumed.

Ritchie Edhouse

Projected end of 2026 season ranking: 54

Edhouse’s projected position is one of the most eye-catching elements of the table. A recent major winner sitting at 54th underlines how unforgiving the ranking system can be once a single big result rolls off.

At that level, he would be just ten places from losing his Tour Card entirely. Without another deep televised run, the mathematics alone would drag him into a genuine fight for survival.

Mensur Suljovic

Projected end of 2026 season ranking: 52

Suljovic’s projection places him squarely in the danger band. At 52nd, there is almost no margin for error.

One missed World Championship or a prolonged run of early ProTour exits would push him toward the cut-off rapidly. Experience alone no longer provides protection at this level of the rankings.

Alan Soutar

Projected end of 2026 season ranking: 57

Soutar’s projection is particularly stark. Sitting at 57th, he would be just seven places above losing his Tour Card altogether.

That context gives added weight to his repeated criticisms of the PDC ranking structure, which he has argued favours established names and protects players at the top while leaving those in his bracket under constant pressure to survive rather than progress.

At 57th, even solid performances are not enough. Only sustained volume keeps a player safe.

Ian White

Projected end of 2026 season ranking: 55

Despite signs of resurgence in 2025, White’s projected position leaves him firmly in the danger zone. At 55th, one poor season would undo hard-earned progress quickly.

This is the reality for players operating without a major prize-money cushion in the modern PDC.

Already on the wrong side of the projected cut-off

Kim Huybrechts

Projected end of 2026 season ranking: 69

Huybrechts is the clearest warning of all. Projected outside the top 64, his Tour Card would already be gone under this scenario.

At that point, the discussion shifts from decline to survival. Without a rapid reversal in form and results, Q-School becomes unavoidable.

The bottom line

What these projections reveal is not a collection of isolated slumps, but a systemic squeeze created by the rolling Order of Merit.

World champions are no longer immune to sliding into the 20s. Recent major winners are drifting dangerously close to the Tour Card cut-off. And at least one former Premier League player is already projected out of the tour entirely.

As 2026 begins, the stakes are no longer abstract. For some of the PDC’s most recognisable names, this season is not about chasing titles, but about preventing a slide that could fundamentally reshape their careers.