ANALYSIS: Van Gerwen and Wright facing major ranking slides as Tour Card danger looms for Van den Bergh and Van Barneveld
PDC
As the PDC enters the 2026 season, the Order of Merit is approaching a pressure point that extends far beyond who can challenge Luke Littler at the very top. Using projected rankings based on rolling prize money and current performance trends, the numbers point toward a far harsher reality beneath the elite layer of the sport.
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Former world champions are no longer insulated from meaningful drops. Recent major winners are drifting toward the Tour Card cut-off. And at least one established name is already projected to fall off the tour altogether.
This is not about form or opinion. It is about what the ranking system would deliver by the end of the 2026 season if recent patterns continue.
World champions at risk of major slides
Michael van Gerwen
Projected end of 2026 season ranking: 20
Van Gerwen’s projected position is the most striking figure on the table. After more than a decade spent entrenched at the very top of the sport, a drop to 20th would represent a structural shift rather than a temporary dip in form.
While his 2025 season still included a televised title, the broader trend is unavoidable. The volume of deep ranking major runs that once defined his dominance has thinned, and large sums earned earlier in the cycle are beginning to roll off without being fully replaced.
A ranking of 20 would mean:
- no seeding protection at majors,
- consistently tougher early-round draws,
- and a complete change in competitive status.
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For Van Gerwen, this would not simply be a slide. It would redefine his position within the modern PDC hierarchy.
Peter Wright
Projected end of 2026 season ranking: 32
Wright’s projection places him outside the top 32, a line that carries both symbolic and practical weight in the current structure.
His 2025 season offered only limited evidence of the sustained major runs required to offset expiring world-title prize money. Early exits at televised events became more common, while the sort of repeatable deep runs that once guaranteed security were largely absent.
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A ranking in the low 30s would mean:
- loss of automatic seeding,
- greater qualification pressure,
- and heavier reliance on ProTour accumulation.
It would mark the definitive end of Wright’s era as a protected elite player.
Rob Cross
Projected end of 2026 season ranking: 24
Cross’s projected drop is less dramatic but no less significant. Falling to 24th would place him firmly in the chasing pack rather than among the sport’s established leaders.
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His recent seasons have been defined by volatility. Strong weeks and isolated wins followed by early exits that prevent momentum from compounding. In a ranking system that rewards accumulation over spikes, that inconsistency carries consequences.
At 24th, Cross would still be competitive, but without any meaningful safety buffer. Every major run would matter disproportionately, and one poor year could quickly escalate into a larger problem.
Big names who could be at risk of losing their Tour Card with a disaster year
Dimitri Van den Bergh
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Projected end of 2026 season ranking: 51
Van den Bergh’s projection places him just 13 places above the Tour Card cut-off. That margin is far thinner than it appears.
Disrupted seasons, reduced volume, and a lack of sustained deep runs at ranking majors have left him exposed. At 51st, one poor year would immediately pull him into a genuine survival fight.
For a former Matchplay champion and Premier League regular, that level of insecurity would represent a dramatic shift in status.
Van den Bergh's Tour Card could be at risk sooner rather than later
Raymond van Barneveld
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Projected end of 2026 season ranking: 39
Van Barneveld is not yet in immediate danger, but 39th is a precarious place to reside long-term. Without a deep World Championship run, his ranking security depends on grinding results rather than protected status.
Another quiet season would pull him rapidly toward the 50s, where qualification itself becomes uncertain rather than assumed.
Ritchie Edhouse
Projected end of 2026 season ranking: 54
Edhouse’s projected position is one of the most eye-catching elements of the table. A recent major winner sitting at 54th underlines how unforgiving the ranking system can be once a single big result rolls off.
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At that level, he would be just ten places from losing his Tour Card entirely. Without another deep televised run, the mathematics alone would drag him into a genuine fight for survival.
Mensur Suljovic
Projected end of 2026 season ranking: 52
Suljovic’s projection places him squarely in the danger band. At 52nd, there is almost no margin for error.
One missed World Championship or a prolonged run of early ProTour exits would push him toward the cut-off rapidly. Experience alone no longer provides protection at this level of the rankings.
Alan Soutar
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Projected end of 2026 season ranking: 57
Soutar’s projection is particularly stark. Sitting at 57th, he would be just seven places above losing his Tour Card altogether.
That context gives added weight to his repeated criticisms of the PDC ranking structure, which he has argued favours established names and protects players at the top while leaving those in his bracket under constant pressure to survive rather than progress.
At 57th, even solid performances are not enough. Only sustained volume keeps a player safe.
Ian White
Projected end of 2026 season ranking: 55
Despite signs of resurgence in 2025, White’s projected position leaves him firmly in the danger zone. At 55th, one poor season would undo hard-earned progress quickly.
This is the reality for players operating without a major prize-money cushion in the modern PDC.
Read also
Already on the wrong side of the projected cut-off
Kim Huybrechts
Projected end of 2026 season ranking: 69
Huybrechts is the clearest warning of all. Projected outside the top 64, his Tour Card would already be gone under this scenario.
At that point, the discussion shifts from decline to survival. Without a rapid reversal in form and results, Q-School becomes unavoidable.
The bottom line
What these projections reveal is not a collection of isolated slumps, but a systemic squeeze created by the rolling Order of Merit.
World champions are no longer immune to sliding into the 20s.
Recent major winners are drifting dangerously close to the Tour Card cut-off.
And at least one former Premier League player is already projected out of the tour entirely.
As 2026 begins, the stakes are no longer abstract. For some of the PDC’s most recognisable names, this season is not about chasing titles, but about preventing a slide that could fundamentally reshape their careers.
Kieran WoodDarts Journalist
Kieran Wood is a sports journalist based in Wales and has been active in journalism since 2022. He contributes to DartsNews.com, where he covers professional darts through news, match reports, analysis, and live coverage across the PDC calendar and major tournaments.
A key part of his work is on-site reporting from leading events. Kieran has covered the PDC World Darts Championship in person, reporting daily from the venue and providing first-hand insight from the tournament. During his coverage, he has conducted interviews with leading players including Luke Littler, Luke Humphries, and Gerwyn Price.
He is also one of the leading voices of the English-language Dartsnews Podcast, contributing regular analysis and discussion on developments across the professional darts circuit.
In his reporting, Kieran places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles when new, verified information becomes available.
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- Ultimately it is a bye for whoever draws Barney. It will be another stroppy and sulky performance once he goes behind. Barney was excellent but really must completely call it a day now.richieburnettrocks07-11-2026
- I'm disappointed he was not able to secure a spot at the Grand Slam. With Carl Sneyd taking care of Daryl Gurney, he would have had to beat Andy Boulton before facing the winner of Sneyd vs Mensur Suljović for a Grand Slam spot. Unfortunately, after beating Filip Bereza comfortably, he succumbed to Boulton, and the board would ultimately be won by the highly inconsistent Carl Sneyd. Since he could instead have been drawn against the likes of Cristo Reyes, Dirk van Duijvenbode and Stephen Bunting, I think once Gurney was out of the picture he would have been favourite to win his board, and it seems like a massive missed opportunity to put 5 grand on his ranking and seal another major TV appearance ahead of the Worlds. The highs and lows of following Raymond van Barneveld!Deduce635806-11-2026
- Probably i will receive a lot of backlash and hate for this reaction, but well, so be it. I am more than sick and tired of those lies of you Barry Hearn. How dare you defend yourself over the back of Fallon’s son! He has a disability and not an illness, so let me correct that for you! I know because I have the exact same disability. I have tried to reach out to Fallon in the past, and offered her to help her and her son, because I was struggling with the same problems, and I understood the boy. I wanted him to have finally someone who understood him. However she told me that she did not want my help, and I have respected Fallon’s choice. I have never asked Fallon for money. They don’t need money in that case. I only ever wanted the best for Fallon and Rory, but I have to be honest about the situation. Fallon should tell the true story and not be forced to tell lies. I don’t hate Fallon, and I don’t begrudge or envy a single penny that she gets, but this situation/case is just not fair. I hate the lies and the dishonesty and injustice. I don’t want Fallon to be hated because there is an unfair disadvantage created. Don’t proclaim your false lies over the back of Rory! I only stand for integrity and justice. I am precisely the one who always sticks up for Fallon. And you don't, you don't give a damn about them. You were never there for them, and now you only want to save your own position! You are just trying to talk your way out of your own bad behavior at the expense of someone with a disability. And to Fallon, I don’t know if this may ever reach you, and you read it, but I want you to know I love you and I love your son Rory very much, I am sorry how things developed and went. I hope you and Harriet are still friends. I am sorry if I were too persistent to you, or you experienced it that way, but it was never my intention. Please understand I have autism as well. As Barry Hearn would say, I am only just a human being too, and I also make mistakes and misjudge things sometimes. I promise you I did everything out of the deepest love and care for you and Rory. If I were you, I should just keep all the money, only please never be dishonest or tell lies anymore for Barry Hearn, or anyone else. I hope you have the best life, and I wish nothing more than the best for you. I have always loved the two of you. Farewell.Hiddo05-11-2026
- She is a professional. If darts is her income, she is a professional. Same as Adrian Lewis, Martin Adams. A tour card just means someone can play on the PDC tour. You could even make a case that Clayton wasn't a professional (until recently I believe) because he had employment elsewhere.BandB04-11-2026
- She's technically not a professional though as she doesn't hold a pro tour card.mr-pablo04-11-2026
- Such a shame that lakeside has been reduced to this. Fantastic venue,and previously a great tournament. Not any morerick6703-11-2026
- Seems to me that the top 16 players pick and choose whatever they want to play. Good,all the money will get spread out more. They get more money from exhibitions than tournaments so let them all withdrawrick6703-11-2026
- Play all legs and the winners split the pot. Luke gets the lot of he wins them all. If your occupation is darts player you can't enter, regardless of ability.BandB01-11-2026
- I'm quite a jaded person all things considered, but to be honest I found Beat Luke Littler to be pretty entertaining. It certainly wasn't seamless, which is to be expected given the lack of precedence, but I actually think the pacing was pretty good, the production was impressive, and there was a good sense of humour and levity to it. I think it was a very ambitious undertaking but one that, for the most part, paid off. I liked the system with the four pots and I think it added to the drama and intrigue. I enjoyed seeing the diverse range of entrants and learning about their backstories. I think the interactivity was pretty clever and well-integrated. The panel was a little incoherent at times; Lee Mack shone however, and his improvisational skills were appreciated during some more awkward interstitial moments. As far as the darts is concerned, it was a shame that the format didn't allow Littler to get into full flow. You obviously don't want him to steamroll everyone but you want to feel like you're getting the full Littler package rather than seeing him struggling to get out of first gear. I will say that his leg against Jayden Walker was very impressive, but it was mostly downhill from there. The attraction revolves around Littler being this untouchable, indomitable force, yet the format doesn't really allow him to fulfil that characterisation. As for Fallon Sherrock, she was mightily impressive and deserved the victory. It is a testament to her unshakeable character that she was able to bang in a 14-darter under such mind-bending pressure. Everything that has been said about the misleading marketing is valid, though they were clear about their eligibility criteria and were able to offload the responsibility somewhat by bringing the viewers into the decision-making process in real time. What is clear though, is that Fallon played the game according to the rules, and she should not be criticised for that, much less abused. I will admit though that it is a kick in the teeth for those true amateurs who committed time and money to the course, and I would also question those who think pub players would have no chance, given that some of Littler's winning legs were dispatched in 7 visits to the board! The great thing about darts is that it isn't so much that amateurs cannot replicate the feats of brilliance pulled off by professionals of the sport, than it is that they simply cannot replicate the consistency of their output, something that this format almost entirely removes from the equation. It should also be noted that, financially, Fallon certainly stands to benefit much less in relative terms from the paycheque than would your average pub thrower, as I'm sure she nets a fair income from the lucrative exhibition circuit alone. What I do hope is that she might use this as an opportunity to really build up a head of steam heading into the new season, as it seems long overdue that she come through Q-School and really take it to the pros on a week-in week-out basis, but whatever she chooses to do, she has certainly achieved enough already for one if not several lifetimes, so who am I to dictate terms? To conclude though, I will state once again that I found Beat Luke Littler to be a pretty enjoyable evening of entertainment. I do feel for the contestants who never actually had the chance to try their luck against the world #1, although I suppose it comes with the format, but all which inevitably raises the question: will Netflix be tempted to do it all again next year? It's hard to say. Whether it would be financially viable, I can't weigh in there. One point I have been making though, and which I touched on earlier, is that the entire concept relies on a public perception that Littler is more or less unbeatable, and that certainly hasn't been the case of late. If the execs had been trying to pitch the show in recent months while Littler has seemed vulnerable, rather than when he was mopping up almost every major title on the calendar, it would certainly be a tougher sell. We will have to see in about 6 months' time whether Littler can still reliably command perception as a near-unstoppable force in darts, and then we'll have a clearer idea about whether we should expect a second helping. Even as a one-off experiment though, and with all the controversy taken into account, I still don't think they disgraced themselves by any means, and that will probably be my lingering assessment of the event when all is said and done.Deduce635801-11-2026
- Fair play to Fallon. But...shows the mockery when a professional players wins what was meant to be an amateur v Pro event, Littlers performance was poor, and what about the players who didn't get a game? Would have been better if the pot was split amoungst all the winners and they all got a leg.BandB31-10-2026