Luke Humphries set to defend nearly 50% of PDC Order of Merit total but remains untouchable: "When you've been winning as much as he has, it doesn't really matter"

The busiest and perhaps most important part of the darts season is just around the corner. With the biggest televised majors approaching, not only are prestigious titles up for grabs, but significant changes could also occur on the PDC Order of Merit.

Because the world rankings are based on prize money earned over the previous two years, substantial amounts of ranking money will disappear from several top players' totals over the coming months.

Former professional darts player and analyst Matthew Edgar examined the situation on his YouTube channel, Edgar TV Darts. He focused particularly on players who have large sums of prize money to defend and who could come under pressure as the season reaches its conclusion.

The standout name in Edgar's analysis is undoubtedly Michael van Gerwen. The Dutchman has been among the world's elite for years, but faces a considerable challenge over the coming months. According to Edgar, the three-time World Champion must defend no less than £412,000 in prize money.

"He's going to be defending a lot of money at the back end of this year: £412,000, a large percentage of his prize fund that could see him drop outside the world's top 16. It includes a European Tour title from a couple of years ago, £200,000 from the World Championship, which we do know the prize money has gone up for, so he wouldn't need to reach the final to defend that, and £100,000 from the World Matchplay.

That figure is largely made up of prize money from major successes in previous seasons. Van Gerwen is defending prize money from a European Tour title, but it's his performances on the biggest stages that account for most of the total. "So, of that £412,000, £300,000 is from just two events: the World Matchplay and the World Championship. Those could be quite important for Michael van Gerwen's season."

Despite this, Edgar doesn't believe Van Gerwen's fans should be overly concerned. He pointed out that the Dutch star still has plenty of opportunities to earn the money back.

"Got that little ace up his sleeve in the fact that he hasn't played in all the ProTours and those side events, so there's a little bit of extra prize money he can pick up along the way. He is also guaranteed a minimum of £51,500 at the back end of the year simply by qualifying for these events. So a good percentage of it is already defended just by turning up—he doesn't need to win too many games.

"Although it looks quite alarming at the moment that Van Gerwen could be outside the top 16, he's got a lot of big events coming up. He only needs a couple of decent runs on TV and he's suddenly back inside the world's top 16 and looking quite comfortable.

"I don't see him coming outside the top 16. I think he's playing far too well for that to happen. I think he's going to pick up quite a lot of wins on TV. Is he going to win titles? I don't know, but I don't see him outside the top 16. I don't think that's a concern."

While Edgar isn't overly worried about Van Gerwen, he is far more concerned about Dave Chisnall's situation. The experienced arrowsmith risks slipping significantly down the rankings.

According to Edgar, Chisnall is defending £153,000, representing 43.2% of his current ranking total. That includes prize money from tournament victories.

"He's currently provisionally outside, defending 43.2% of his prize money, £153,000, including two titles—a European Tour title and a Players Championship title—with £45,000 coming off his Order of Merit.

"I think he'll be in the Players Championship Finals, but he needs to qualify for the other events: the European Championship and the World Grand Prix. Currently, before the World Matchplay, he's just inside those qualification spots, but he could get knocked out of them."

As a result, qualification for the remaining majors becomes crucial. Edgar believes things could quickly unravel if Chisnall misses those tournaments.

"If he misses those events and doesn't go on to make the World Matchplay, Chizz is outside the top 32, which I think is bonkers to see. Even if he gets into those events, he could still end up outside the top 32 depending on other results and how he performs. Obviously, having that guaranteed money would help him out drastically, so Chizz could be outside the world's top 32."

Stephen Bunting is another player defending a substantial amount of prize money, though Edgar sees much less danger there. Bunting is defending £233,000, or 38.1% of his ranking total. Much of that comes from the World Championship.

"I don't see a concern here for Stephen at the back end of the year. Is he going to challenge for the top four? He's got a lot to do. Is he going to be towards the bottom of the top 16? No, I think he'll be top 10. I don't see a concern here for Stephen Bunting."

Current world number two Luke Humphries is also set to lose a huge amount of ranking money over the coming months. However, Edgar believes his position is entirely different.

Humphries is defending £531,000, an incredible 44.3% of his ranking total. Even so, Edgar expects no problems whatsoever. Humphries' current form is the key factor.

"It sounds like a lot, but when you've been winning as much as Luke Humphries has, it doesn't really matter because, provisionally, he'd only drop to world number three. That's because Gian van Veen reached the World Championship final last year.

"Humphries is in all the big events. He's got lots more prize money to come onto his Order of Merit. I see no concern whatsoever regarding Luke Humphries and the rankings.

"Sometimes you look at the percentage and think, "That's a lot. This player could really tumble down the rankings." They could—but not Luke Humphries. He's got far too much money on the Order of Merit and he's playing far too well. He's just won the US Darts Masters, beating Luke Littler in the final. He had that amazing showing at The O2 and a great Premier League campaign. He's shown his quality all year. He's definitely one to keep an eye on for more titles. Surprise, eh? I'm not telling you anything new."

The player Edgar believes is under the greatest pressure is Belgium's Mike De Decker. His previous results over the past two years have left him with a huge amount to defend.

The largest portion comes from his World Grand Prix triumph. "He's defending the World Grand Prix title, worth £120,000. That's coming off the Order of Merit this year, along with £20,000 from the Players Championship Finals and £15,000 from Players Championship 16. It was a fantastic period for him, but it's all coming off his ranking this year.

"At the time of recording, he is the highest-ranked player not in the World Matchplay. He's also not in any other major, including the Players Championship Finals, apart from the World Championship. That's the concern."

Edgar has noticed encouraging signs, however. "Defending 55% of your prize money—£236,000—is a huge amount. As things stand, De Decker would be comfortably outside the world's top 32.

"Are there 32 players better than Mike De Decker? The rankings would suggest there are if things stay the same by the end of the year. So that could be quite a significant drop."

Alongside the players likely to fall, Edgar also highlighted those with the greatest potential to climb. One of them is Kevin Doets.

"The guy has been a winning machine on the ProTour and the European Tour this year. I think he's really going to crack it in the big events. He's defending virtually nothing and is undoubtedly going to fly up the rankings. Keep your eye on Kevin Doets as a player to watch."

Nijman less of a shock and he too is part of that next breed of darting star not defending a lot. He also sees him in next year's Premier League line-up.

"I wouldn't be surprised if Wessel Nijman starts challenging for the top four within the next 12 months. He just needs a couple of good runs on TV. I think we'll see him in the Premier League next year. I think that's the direction he's heading. I don't see anything stopping him right now. Eight titles, six on the floor and two on the European Tour. An unbelievable player."