The truth behind ton-plus checkouts: why Luke Littler, Rob Cross and Michael Smith each dominate in their respective fields
PDC
In the world of professional darts, there is one statistic that often causes spectacle: the ton-plus checkouts - all finishes from 100 and above. The crowd goes wild when a player throws out a 170-finish, and the commentators like to make a highlight of it as well. But a closer look reveals that not all high finishes say as much about a darter's class.
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In fact, the way the PDC and other statistics followers present these figures, they shortchange some achievements and overestimate others.
Why the 100-finish gets too much weight
A checkout of exactly 100 is statistically one of the least impressive ton-plus finishes. Top darters often work it off in two arrows (T20, D20) and succeed within three darts almost half the time. That gives the 100-finish a disproportionate weight in the statistics, because it is relatively easy compared to, say, a 161- or 170-finish, which requires three perfect darts.
This undervalues the most difficult checkouts, where there is no room for error. After all, a 167 finish is a masterpiece of precision, but is given the same status in statistics as a routine 100.
The problem of data and context
To paint a fair picture of a player's checkout skills, one should actually look at the number of attempts it took to complete a finish. A player who attempts 161 ten times and throws one out shows a very different picture than someone who pulls off that trick in three out of 10 attempts.
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Besides, a reliable picture requires a lot of data. But darts is a sport of form peaks and valleys: a player who struggled with 132-finishes in 2021 may suddenly be much sharper in 2025. A striking example is Simon Whitlock: between 2017 and now, the Australian recorded an impressive 14% 132-finish percentage. But now that he has lost his PDC Tour Card, the data to accurately measure his level in 2025 is still lacking.
Classification into difficulty categories
To gain more insight, analysts have tried to group finishes by difficulty. In doing so, we distinguish roughly four categories:
- Treble-treble-bull finishes (TTB) Think 161, 164, 167 and the iconic 170, which require two triples and the bullseye.
- Treble-treble-double finishes (TTD) For example 131, 133, 134 and all finishes between 136 and 160, which require two triples followed by a double.
- Treble-single-bull finishes (TSB) The 121 through 130. There is room for a slight deviation here, as a missed triple can often be corrected via the bull.
- Treble-single-double finishes (TSD) The lower triple-digit finishes (99 to 120, excluding 100). Here, a player can vary routes, such as 116 via T19 or T20.
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This classification creates a more nuanced picture of what players really excel at.
Littler versus the rest
Not surprisingly, Luke Littler also leads the way in these statistics. The 18-year-old Englishman is known for his devastating 170-finishes - he has already thrown eight this year. That puts him at an astonishing 7.1% percentage on TTB finishes, almost three times better than the PDC average of 2.6%.
Still, Littler is not untouchable. On TTD finishes (131-160), he is only sixth, while Josh Rock, Jonny Clayton and Cameron Menzies lead here. They even achieve more than 10% success on this category. Interestingly, it is precisely the seemingly "easy" 160-finish that is thrown out more often, while rarer options such as 131 and 133 score much lower.
Luke 'The Nuke' Littler in action
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Looking at TSB finishes (121-130), the proportions shift again. Remarkably, Littler is among the weaker brethren here, with only 10.6% success and thus in the bottom third of the PDC.
Rob Cross, on the other hand, shines with over 20% accuracy - the only player to exceed this limit. Jonny Clayton stands out as a specialist on the 121-finish, which he throws out in more than 30% of his attempts. Yet on other finishes in this range he drops back to below average.
In TSD finishes (99-120), Littler recovers and leads the rankings with nearly 30% success. He is joined by Ross Smith, who excels with 29.1%. This is especially noteworthy because Smith has yet to be successful on TTB finishes (161-170) in 150 attempts in 2025.
This contrast highlights how little correlation there sometimes is between different categories. Cameron Menzies, for example, is among the best on TTD finishes, but dangles near the bottom on TSD, with only 16%.
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The importance of detailed statistics
So simply adding up high finishes does not do justice to reality. In fact, a player with three ton-plus finishes in a match may have performed far less impressively than someone who throws out a 170 once.
Moreover, the detailed statistics reveal interesting surprises:
- Scott Williams, for example, is more successful on 121-130 finishes than on the "easier" 101-120.
- Jelle Klaasen threw two finishes over 160 in 70 attempts, but failed completely between 136 and 160 despite twice as many chances.
This kind of insight not only helps to compare players more fairly, but also to understand where their strengths and weaknesses lie against specific opponents.
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Conclusion
The picture of ton-plus checkouts deserves much more nuance than is often painted. Whereas the raw numbers sometimes suggest that all high finishes are equal, deeper analysis shows that each category has its own dynamics and that players are rarely equally strong at everything.
Luke Littler may be the king of the 170 finish, Rob Cross excels in the 120s and Ross Smith impresses in the low triple digits. Together they show that darts is much more than just throwing triples and doubles: it's about timing, specialism and mental strength in the moments when it really counts.
In his latest column, PDC Stats Analyst @ochepedia analyses the most prolific ton-plus finishers on the PDC circuit in 2025.
— PDC Darts (@OfficialPDC) September 2, 2025
📝 https://t.co/oV50LcbpD9 pic.twitter.com/NkTg9nAWWV
Kieran WoodDarts Journalist
Kieran Wood is a sports journalist based in Wales and has been active in journalism since 2022. He contributes to DartsNews.com, where he covers professional darts through news, match reports, analysis, and live coverage across the PDC calendar and major tournaments.
A key part of his work is on-site reporting from leading events. Kieran has covered the PDC World Darts Championship in person, reporting daily from the venue and providing first-hand insight from the tournament. During his coverage, he has conducted interviews with leading players including Luke Littler, Luke Humphries, and Gerwyn Price.
He is also one of the leading voices of the English-language Dartsnews Podcast, contributing regular analysis and discussion on developments across the professional darts circuit.
In his reporting, Kieran places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles when new, verified information becomes available.
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- And why should he listen to you?Deduce635807-11-2026
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- Probably i will receive a lot of backlash and hate for this reaction, but well, so be it. I am more than sick and tired of those lies of you Barry Hearn. How dare you defend yourself over the back of Fallon’s son! He has a disability and not an illness, so let me correct that for you! I know because I have the exact same disability. I have tried to reach out to Fallon in the past, and offered her to help her and her son, because I was struggling with the same problems, and I understood the boy. I wanted him to have finally someone who understood him. However she told me that she did not want my help, and I have respected Fallon’s choice. I have never asked Fallon for money. They don’t need money in that case. I only ever wanted the best for Fallon and Rory, but I have to be honest about the situation. Fallon should tell the true story and not be forced to tell lies. I don’t hate Fallon, and I don’t begrudge or envy a single penny that she gets, but this situation/case is just not fair. I hate the lies and the dishonesty and injustice. I don’t want Fallon to be hated because there is an unfair disadvantage created. Don’t proclaim your false lies over the back of Rory! I only stand for integrity and justice. I am precisely the one who always sticks up for Fallon. And you don't, you don't give a damn about them. You were never there for them, and now you only want to save your own position! You are just trying to talk your way out of your own bad behavior at the expense of someone with a disability. And to Fallon, I don’t know if this may ever reach you, and you read it, but I want you to know I love you and I love your son Rory very much, I am sorry how things developed and went. I hope you and Harriet are still friends. I am sorry if I were too persistent to you, or you experienced it that way, but it was never my intention. Please understand I have autism as well. As Barry Hearn would say, I am only just a human being too, and I also make mistakes and misjudge things sometimes. I promise you I did everything out of the deepest love and care for you and Rory. If I were you, I should just keep all the money, only please never be dishonest or tell lies anymore for Barry Hearn, or anyone else. I hope you have the best life, and I wish nothing more than the best for you. I have always loved the two of you. Farewell.Hiddo05-11-2026
- She is a professional. If darts is her income, she is a professional. Same as Adrian Lewis, Martin Adams. A tour card just means someone can play on the PDC tour. You could even make a case that Clayton wasn't a professional (until recently I believe) because he had employment elsewhere.BandB04-11-2026
- She's technically not a professional though as she doesn't hold a pro tour card.mr-pablo04-11-2026
- Such a shame that lakeside has been reduced to this. Fantastic venue,and previously a great tournament. Not any morerick6703-11-2026
- Seems to me that the top 16 players pick and choose whatever they want to play. Good,all the money will get spread out more. They get more money from exhibitions than tournaments so let them all withdrawrick6703-11-2026
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- I'm quite a jaded person all things considered, but to be honest I found Beat Luke Littler to be pretty entertaining. It certainly wasn't seamless, which is to be expected given the lack of precedence, but I actually think the pacing was pretty good, the production was impressive, and there was a good sense of humour and levity to it. I think it was a very ambitious undertaking but one that, for the most part, paid off. I liked the system with the four pots and I think it added to the drama and intrigue. I enjoyed seeing the diverse range of entrants and learning about their backstories. I think the interactivity was pretty clever and well-integrated. The panel was a little incoherent at times; Lee Mack shone however, and his improvisational skills were appreciated during some more awkward interstitial moments. As far as the darts is concerned, it was a shame that the format didn't allow Littler to get into full flow. You obviously don't want him to steamroll everyone but you want to feel like you're getting the full Littler package rather than seeing him struggling to get out of first gear. I will say that his leg against Jayden Walker was very impressive, but it was mostly downhill from there. The attraction revolves around Littler being this untouchable, indomitable force, yet the format doesn't really allow him to fulfil that characterisation. As for Fallon Sherrock, she was mightily impressive and deserved the victory. It is a testament to her unshakeable character that she was able to bang in a 14-darter under such mind-bending pressure. Everything that has been said about the misleading marketing is valid, though they were clear about their eligibility criteria and were able to offload the responsibility somewhat by bringing the viewers into the decision-making process in real time. What is clear though, is that Fallon played the game according to the rules, and she should not be criticised for that, much less abused. I will admit though that it is a kick in the teeth for those true amateurs who committed time and money to the course, and I would also question those who think pub players would have no chance, given that some of Littler's winning legs were dispatched in 7 visits to the board! The great thing about darts is that it isn't so much that amateurs cannot replicate the feats of brilliance pulled off by professionals of the sport, than it is that they simply cannot replicate the consistency of their output, something that this format almost entirely removes from the equation. It should also be noted that, financially, Fallon certainly stands to benefit much less in relative terms from the paycheque than would your average pub thrower, as I'm sure she nets a fair income from the lucrative exhibition circuit alone. What I do hope is that she might use this as an opportunity to really build up a head of steam heading into the new season, as it seems long overdue that she come through Q-School and really take it to the pros on a week-in week-out basis, but whatever she chooses to do, she has certainly achieved enough already for one if not several lifetimes, so who am I to dictate terms? To conclude though, I will state once again that I found Beat Luke Littler to be a pretty enjoyable evening of entertainment. I do feel for the contestants who never actually had the chance to try their luck against the world #1, although I suppose it comes with the format, but all which inevitably raises the question: will Netflix be tempted to do it all again next year? It's hard to say. Whether it would be financially viable, I can't weigh in there. One point I have been making though, and which I touched on earlier, is that the entire concept relies on a public perception that Littler is more or less unbeatable, and that certainly hasn't been the case of late. If the execs had been trying to pitch the show in recent months while Littler has seemed vulnerable, rather than when he was mopping up almost every major title on the calendar, it would certainly be a tougher sell. We will have to see in about 6 months' time whether Littler can still reliably command perception as a near-unstoppable force in darts, and then we'll have a clearer idea about whether we should expect a second helping. Even as a one-off experiment though, and with all the controversy taken into account, I still don't think they disgraced themselves by any means, and that will probably be my lingering assessment of the event when all is said and done.Deduce635801-11-2026