Who could actually Beat Luke Littler and win £501,000? - From Civil Servant to youth prodigies and The Queen of the Palace

Beat Luke Littler airs live on Netflix on Friday, 30 October, at 7 pm from Manchester Central, hosted by football legend Gary Lineker and iconic television presenter Richard Osman. With 24 contestants and 20 of these spots available, contestants are split into groups and randomly selected to face Littler, with each challenger getting one leg of 501.

Anyone who wins takes £501,000, and the show ends there. Auditions began, but these can’t be a true reflection of the field, with almost every player at one point playing at a high level of darts, whether this be the MODUS Super Series or the Challenge Tour. Announced as amateur-only, this has drawn criticism from fans and experts alike, but the players won’t care. A shot at £501,000 and an appearance on Netflix may be the highlight of the career, but for some on this list, this could be the start.

Littler’s 12-month figures are astonishing, and they explain why the simple achievement of beating him in a leg of 501 wins these players over half a million pounds. Averaging 101.33 and with the first nine of 111.75, Littler on paper is unstoppable. Yet, he comes in with mixed form after early exits in the World Grand Prix and European Championships, meaning he is definitely beatable.

Despite this, he’s consistently shown his levels, and a 114.47 average last weekend against Aspinall and 14.86% of legs he’s played this year being won in 12 darts or fewer, if Littler wins the bullseye, he could leave Manchester without a scare. But if a challenger throws first and hits a 15-darter, a solid 100.2 average, Littler would be reliant on this small 14.86%. So, from this 24-player field, who is most likely to produce this 15-darter on a throw?

A civil servant from Leeds, Gwynne hasn’t played much darts in 2026 but has still produced good performances. Winning 34 matches across 2026, Gwynne has played a solid 83.75 mean match average, which is a competitive level on the Challenge Tour and at all amateur levels of darts. Although playing only 57 matches, to play at such a consistent level despite sharpness shows he has the talent that is needed to beat Littler. The average may be 17.58 less than Littler's, but he only needs one leg, and he has produced a 100+ average this year, beating ex-PDC Tour Card Holder Adam Hunt 5-0 with a 101.55 average, well above the 15 darter threshold. This ceiling pushes the 27-year-old into contention, and reaching the semi-final of a UK Open qualifier before losing to established amateur Graham Usher, Gwynne may not be the most recognisable or flashy name on this list, but he will be in a good position to beat Littler.

With no televised stage experience and this Netflix appearance being the height of his career so far, nerves will settle in, and he’s going to need some uplifting. Being praised by a darts pundit and a 2020 Premier League of Darts winner can definitely be used as motivation, with Durrant telling SportBible, “Jacob Gwynne … they’re the kind of players who could do well," but why? He has no expectation. The Yorkshireman is going into the event, although not well equipped, but almost expecting to lose. If he hits the bullseye, he could use this adrenaline to bridge that 17.58 average gap and produce his second 100+ average of the year against the world champion.

Surprise pick considering her accolades, Sherrock walks into Manchester with the best TV experience and the most established name. 2021 Grand Slam of Darts quarter-finalist and 2020 World Championship last 32, Sherrock has achieved so much in her career so far, but it wouldn’t be controversial to say she’s slowed down. Knocked out in the first round of most PDC major events now, Sherrock has diverted her success to the women’s circuit, where she has won 22 PDC women’s titles, including the historic 2022 Women’s World Matchplay.

On a tour where Beau Greaves has broken records, Sherrock continues to be the most proven performer in front of a big crowd, and this will count for more in a one-leg shootout than it would over a long match, as these nerves will decide single legs. Hitting a nine-darter on the MODUS Super Series and averaging 112.73 earlier this year, experience in this event will help all players on this list. With all matches being best of seven, these short-format, fast-paced games mean players have to take their chances when they get the chance. Littler won’t offer many chances; Sherrock will have to take her women’s success onto the Netflix stage.

Sherrock is far from an amateur. She is a full-time darts player, meaning despite the lowest yearly average on this list, she’s by definition a professional player. Despite this causing controversy online, she’s still a romantic pick. The queen of the palace faces the current king of the palace, and to nobody’s shock, it's a complete statistical mismatch. Averaging 80.87 over the year, the gap between her and Littler is the gap between a county player and Sherrock, with Littler almost playing a different game than Sherrock. Winning 70% of her games in 2026, the level Sherrock operates on the women’s tour is a much lower standard, meaning at times she doesn’t need to play at a high level to win.

Winning just three of the 12 finals she’s played in this year, the 32-year-old has definitely had a troubling 2026, but so have most women when facing Beau Greaves, and Sherrock has still managed to be ranked third on the women’s tour, meaning she has most likely booked another spot at Alexandra Palace in 2026. With the baseline to win being a 15-darter, Sherrock is more than able, averaging above 100 in 2026 three times, meaning although her floor is the lowest on this list, the ceiling is real. Durrant commented on her appearance being “the romantic story of what this is all about” in the same interview with SportBible, and the 3-time BDO champion is right. Although not exactly a random amateur, Sherrock hasn’t seen main stage success due to Beau Greaves; Greaves has almost blocked the spotlight from her for years, and it’s now time for her to prove why the spotlight should be back on her.

14 years old, Young Gun Walker became the youngest player to win a senior WDF title this month after winning the coveted England International Open, beating a record formerly held by his future opponent, Luke Littler. Branded the “next Littler”, Jayden Walker wants to become the next Jayden Walker, and he’s on a good trajectory to do this. At 14, Walker has nerves of steel, and even in the semi-final of this win, he averaged 101.90 to secure his place in the final, where he beat Aaron Turner 5-2.

Walker’s seasonal average undersells him, because his two best performances came in the last fortnight, meaning he’s riding on this confidence wave that will hit the Netflix shore before Littler knows it. Fast-paced, this leg should be over in less than a minute, and this is the psychological angle approaching this game. No Fear.

Walker is 14, and winning £501,000 is obscene; most 14-year-olds haven’t even earned their first pay cheque. With two 110+ averages this year, both in October, when Walker’s on it, his rhythm actually matches Littler’s at times. If Littler’s 114.47 average was impressive, Walker’s 115.62 average is astonishing, and he has the tools to beat the Nuke, so will he?

Walker averaged 81.72 over 2026 and has won 162 games from his yearly 200. Beating Luke Humphries in an exhibition two years ago and having a stage “informal” experience that’ll match the Netflix environment, Walker’s young age may deceive the audience, as his experience matches that of the more senior players in this field.

Telling Sky Sports that “I’ve only hit three nine-darters” shows the kid's level, and if he can enhance last fortnight’s performances, he can definitely beat Littler. What’s important, though, is whether he drops that level to his seasonal average. 81.72 is impressive for a 14-year-old, but this pity won’t get him that far against Littler.

The Lawrie Problem

With Mitchell Lawrie featured later on this list, the Scotsman has been Walker’s kryptonite this year and almost stopped him from reaching his full potential. Losing to Lawrie all three times in 2026, including a semi-final where Walker averaged 102.00, Walker could be coming into this with more titles. But the fact that Walker can average 102 and still lose to Lawrie says as much about Lawrie as it does about Walker. Walker needs just one of those three nine darts, and he will beat Littler, but will his age get the better of him?

The Prince of Darkness is the clearest example of why this event has caused such a stir. A powder coater from Suffolk, Coleman has played 74 Challenge Tour matches in 2026 and spent the rest of his year on the MODUS Super Series, facing players who score heavily week in, week out, something few of the 24 contestants can claim. Winning 128 of his 197 matches this year, the 29-year-old has averaged 87.97 with a 96.24 first nine, the second-best figures in this field on both counts, and he has averaged over 100 in ten matches.

His best came in February, a 106.04 against Nico Plovier on the MODUS Super Series, comfortably above the 15-darter threshold Littler sets. Silverware has followed too, winning Week 5 of MODUS Super Series 14 in May by beating Tommy Morris 4-3 in a last-leg decider, before losing a later final 4-1 to Derek Coulson in July. Coleman isn’t a pub player hoping for a lucky break; he is a tour player who happens to qualify as an amateur, and in a single leg, that experience could be priceless.

Coleman’s best run of the year came at the World Championship UK and Ireland Qualifier in September. Beating Rhys Griffin 6-1 with a 101.21 average, then Harrison Leigh and Ashton Brown 6-3, he came within one leg of a deeper run before losing 6-5 to Nick Kenny in the last 16. That defeat says plenty about where Coleman sits: good enough to take strong opposition to a deciding leg, not yet clinical enough to win it, with a 37.66% checkout across 2026 holding him back.

Against Littler, though, there is no deciding leg to lose, only one leg to win. If Coleman wins the bull and reproduces the scoring that got him through Griffin, he will be the one asking the questions, and Littler will need one of his rare 12-darters to answer them. Of everyone in this field, Coleman is the most likely to produce a clean 15-darter under pressure, except for one teenager from Renfrew.

Wee Sox turns 16 next week, and he arrives in Manchester as the WDF world number one. Last December, Lawrie became the first teenager to reach the final of the senior WDF World Championship, losing to Jimmy van Schie, and 2026 has been even better. Winning 237 of his 259 matches and 30 of the 33 finals he has played this year, Lawrie is the outstanding player in this field by every measure.

Averaging 91.03 with a 101.34 first nine and a 42.04% checkout, he leads all four of the other players on this list, and his first nine is the only figure here that comes within touching distance of Littler’s.

Averaging over 100 in 40 matches this year, with a best of 112.73 at the Denmark Open, Lawrie doesn’t just reach the 15-darter threshold occasionally; it’s his normal level. He won the Europe Cup men’s final 7-4 against Zvonimir Lesic with a 101.26 average at the start of the month, and six days before the show he beat Jayden Walker 5-4 with a 102.12 average. Glen Durrant summed it up: “If he wins the bullseye and throws first, he can throw a 12-darter. He’s that good.”

Lawrie has been on the winning side against Littler before. At the 2023 Youth World Cup in Gibraltar, Scotland beat Littler’s England 4-3, and Lawrie hasn’t forgotten it. “We beat them 4-3 in a deciding leg and it’s one of those memories that sticks with you forever.”

He is realistic about how much has changed since, telling Sky Sports, “But that was before he went on to be what he is,” yet the belief is still there: “Everybody there has a chance at the end of the day.”

Psychologically, that balance is exactly what a single leg demands, with respect for the opponent but no fear of him. If Lawrie wins the bull, a 15-darter puts £501,000 on Littler’s 14.86%, and Lawrie produces that kind of leg more often than anyone else in this field. The biggest obstacle may not be Littler at all.

With the order random and the show ending the moment someone wins, Lawrie knows it himself: “There’s a bundle of good players in there, and you’re just hoping you get a chance before they get a chance.” Will the WDF world number one even get called before Friday night is over?