ANALYSIS - Luke Littler leads the way, but these five players including James Wade could define the World Matchplay

Luke Littler and James Wade are two of the leading hopes for this year's World Matchplay in regards to English players but what are the chances of both as well as a further smattering of top names from the home nation.

From Dave Chisnall who has only just qualified to Ryan Joyce who was close to walking away from the sport and can now be perceived as a potential dark horse in this year's tournament.

Often one of the hardest tournaments to qualify for, you have to be good to make the World Matchplay but what about winning it? Time to run the rule over five of England's best.

Luke Littler walks into Winter Gardens as the odds-on favourite to win the title. Having won every major so far in 2026, there are very few reasons why Luke Littler wouldn’t go back-to-back. Currently winning 80% of his matches in 2026 against darts’ elite, Littler is statistically the most in-form player. But what does winning the Matchplay matter? How is he going to win it?

In the last 12 months, Littler’s average sits around 100, with a high of 101.52 in the early part of 2026, but with a first-9 average of 111.67 across 2026, he blows any opponent out of the water. With this start to legs, a checkout percentage of 40.29% going into the Matchplay is elite and means that he doesn’t just start strong; Littler ends strong.

But coming out of the USA and Denmark without a World Series title, and with the World Cup win expected rather than surprising, the Matchplay is needed. Littler revealed in a New York interview that winning the World Matchplay guarantees pro tour appearances: “If I win the Matchplay, the Pro Tours are on; if I don’t win the Matchplay, then Pro Tours are cancelled for 2026”. This means that winning the Matchplay has a knock-on effect of sending Littler to Minehead. Therefore, with his scoring rhythm strong but his checkout percentage weak, seeing his match darts checkout percentage drop from 63.06% in 2025 to 40.82% in recent months, Littler’s Matchplay determines if he could defend the £60,000 he won in Minehead in November 2024.

In 2026, Littler has been electric. World Champion, Masters, UK Open, European Tour, World Series, Premier League. This is six trophies in seven months. He could make that seven from seven with a win at Blackpool, adding another win at Dart’s most iconic venue onto his CV. It hasn’t just been these wins; it’s been the matter of how he won each title.

The UK Open and World Championship had a few setbacks, with Littler on cruise control, defeating Gian van Veen 7-1 in the World Championship final, and James Wade 11-7, with just an 89.49 average from Wade. In the context of the Matchplay, this isn’t as important as his other wins. With a last-leg decider to win both the Masters title and the Premier League title, this resilience and composure will prove pivotal. 111.67 was the final average in the Premier League, proving that in the moments when Littler’s under pressure from the world's best, he doesn’t fold, and only improves. Why does this matter?

The Nuke’s 2025 Matchplay was a rollercoaster. After a 2024 first-round loss against Michael Van Gerwen, he set out to right his wrongs and did so by becoming the youngest-ever World Matchplay winner. Despite a first-round scrapping of Heavy Metal Ryan Searle 10-2, Littler trailed 7-2 in round 2 against Wattimena, 7-3 against Gilding and then 5-0 against both Wade and Rock in the semi-finals and final.

These comeback narratives mean that his consistently higher averages when under pressure, seen through his decisive leg average of 105.25, aren’t just a quality Littler holds: it’s foundational to the blueprint of the best dart players in the world. Producing some of the best darts of his career against Rock despite being 5-0 down and looking like pressure doesn’t faze him, Springer seems like a manageable obstacle.

The World Number 43 is far from a fool, with his last 3-month average sitting at 93.15 and a rapid 102.8 first 9 average; he will prove a tricky opponent. The debutant’s weakness comes in volatility. During the last 18 months, his average has been as low as 90.44 during 6-month periods, but has been as high as 94.18, with many seeing his slim flights as a foundational barrier to his progress.

Meenzur Bub would need to produce the performance of his career to date to compete with Littler, as even if he goes into the break 5-0 up, this doesn’t add 1% to the possibility of victory. Winning from 5-0 up at the break and from 5-0 down, Littler comes into Blackpool unstoppable from every perspective. Springer is far from a fool, but Littler could make him look like one.

2007 Champion Wade had a record-breaking 2025, his most successful year to date in career earnings in the sport. Being invited to World Series events after a 4-year absence, everything looks up for the machine. With Blackpool as his second home for darts, Wade comes into the tournament with a real chance of picking up the title, with the stats and recent performances suggesting this. With 2024’s Matchplay semi-final igniting a spark in Wade’s career, all stats are increasing. A 95.38 average in the last 3 months and a 2026 win percentage of 64% whilst competing on the pro tour, Wade is not just playing elite darts; his match sharpness can’t be doubted. Wade has built his career on solid finishes, and 2026 doesn’t look like it will change.

With a three-dart checkout rate of 13.01% in 2026 and a 2-darter rate around 50%, Wade’s hitting the right shots at the right time and will keep doing so to compete with the heavy scoring he can’t match. With a first nine average in 2026 of 101.6 and a low but growing first darts T20 percentage of 38.07%, Wade will have to just maintain this strong finishing. With a double twelve hit rate of 46.55% and a double ten rate of 43.49%, he looks in every position to do so.

With such a successful 2025, 2026 was riding on a wave Wade had never surfed before. Yet six months in, Wade has produced some elite darts. Winning the first Players Championship Event and reaching the UK Open final, losing to the aforementioned Littler 11-7, positive signs emerge.

The former Masters winner, his selection for series events highlights how elite James Wade is sitting. In my opinion, snubbed from a Premier League selection in 2026, with reports surfacing that he wasn’t even in the PDC’s mind, the world number 6 has put himself in pole position for a possible 2027 selection, whether the format changes or not. What does this mean for the Matchplay?

Wade needs another solid Matchplay not just to bolster Premier League selection hopes, but to defend the £50,000 he won in 2024 and avoid falling to World Number 10 if players around him perform well. Not only would a poor World Matchplay undo the work he’s done, but it would also prove detrimental for later inclusions in the PDC’s best event. Despite winning the World Matchplay in 2007 and suffering 6 runner-ups since his debut in 2006, only the 16-time winner of the tournament, Taylor, has reached more Matchplay finals than Wade. This experience didn't count for much until 2024, with three consecutive first-round defeats until his semi-final run in 2024, losing to eventual champion Humphries.

Wade can produce classics, with his 20-18 win over Clayton last year in the semi-finals one of the best in recent history of the tournament. The averages may not be extraordinary, but the record is, and the 2025 run was the best for a decade. Wattimena will understand this assignment. With a 93.86 average in the last 3 months and a recent European Tour final in Leverkusen last week, Wattimena comes into the Matchplay with solid form.

With titles under his belt, these won't erase the memory of his collapse against Littler from 7-2 up, losing after a 7-2 lead and with a most recent deciding leg average coming in at 90.20 against Wade’s 99.20, Wade looks stronger. In the Dutchman’s debut year, Wade won 12-10, and with the best result being a last-16 result, Wade will come in confident and the overwhelming favourite. With superior scoring in favour of the Dutchman, a first nine average of 103.22 in 2026 means Wade will need his finishing to do the heavy lifting.

Relentless Joyce has experienced lifestyle changes that have really impacted his darts for the better in 2025, and have continued this way in 2026. Although averages have dropped this year, Joyce’s travelling to Europe and more expressive personality have really shone through, overcoming his fear of flight has produced a European tour final, the highlight of his 2026 going into the Winter Gardens. This stage experience in front of crowds larger than the Matchplay will prove pivotal and, after his turgid history at this tournament, will be needed.

A 2026 win percentage declining from 59% in 2025 to 52%, his peak earnings in 2025 have put him in a compromising position where decline isn’t a sign of complete weakness; as 2025 Joyce was that good. To make any inroads at the World Matchplay, Joyce will have to rely on his doubles, and a double 8 % at a genuinely elite 63.64%; against any opponent he faces, he will have the upper hand in the south west of the board. His scoring has collapsed; with a first 9 average of 101.56 in the early parts of 2025, it has dipped to 98.19, which is around the whole average of his opponent, Gary Anderson.

This spells out danger, but with a Players Championship 18 semi-final and another impressive European tour result of a quarter-final in Belgium, Joyce’s poor stats don’t reflect the darts he’s playing. Yet, the stats seem to catch up with him in the Matchplay.

Making his debut in 2020, he has suffered three losses in three appearances and faced Bunting twice; Gary Anderson will be licking his lips at this draw. What hope is there for Joyce?

Doubles. A T20 accuracy of 28.13% compared to Anderson’s 38.48% isn’t just a striking stat. It is a whole reason he could lose this match. Anderson will completely outscore him; with the Flying Scotsman currently holding a first 9 average in 2026 of 107.24, he’s averaging over 10 points higher than the Tyne thrower. Not just this, Anderson comes into Blackpool with a World Championship semi-final result, and experience in lifting the trophy in 2018; Anderson could be up 3-0 mentally.

The psychological weight of Joyce may compound, and after a break where Joyce doesn’t come steaming hot on doubles, which could happen with a Double 20 accuracy of just 21.31%, there’s every chance Joyce could leave Blackpool in the first round again. Getting to those doubles he’s so clinical at will prove essential, and the realistic assessment could be a tough pill for Joyce to swallow.

A nightmare first-round draw against Nijman, Chisnall’s fightback to get into this tournament could end in disappointment. With a Players Championship 23 semi-final run, Chisnall beat out Gurney by £750 to enter this event for a 16th time. 2026 has seen improvement after quite a disappointing end to 2025, with a lift in win percentage from 52% to 56%; Chisnall can take all the positives from what has been a bleak 12 months.

A fantastic weight loss journey seemed to have repercussions: his throw has seemed to break down, and although Chisnall is adamant these aren’t linked, the correlations are blinding. The trademark poor follow-through has crept up on him, and with an average in the last 3 months of 90.39, he’d be lucky to win more than five legs.

Not just this, a first nine averaging dipping to 98.45 in 2026 and a checkout percentage collapsing to 35.15%, Chisnall is vulnerable. 300/1 to pick up the title, doubts surround him. Positives can always be found, however. A double 16 percentage of 38.46% is similar to Nijman’s second choice of Double 18, and with significantly more experience compared to the young Dutchman, Chizzy will know his way around Blackpool.

Ceilings are built from previous performances, and unless there is large construction, they will stay there, and with a 111.72 average against Schindler in Players Championship 8, the possibility for a vintage Chisnall performance exists when everything clicks.

Chisnall will need to be clinical, and with recent performances, that would be the last superlative to describe him at the moment. Nijman won’t let him breathe, with the third favourite for the title according to Betfred currently improving in every metric, coming into the tournament with eight titles and a first nine average of 107.40. Moreover, with a clinical 44.42% on the outer ring, Chisnall is staring down the barrel of one of the best darts players full stop.

To win, he’d need to put Nijman under pressure early. Winning the bullseye is a necessity, and winning that first leg and breaking in the following few legs could genuinely level Nijman down to his 90 average. Although theoretical and ignoring Nijman’s brilliance at rolling past players with stage averages as high as 112.87 in 2026, Nijman’s the obvious favourite. Similarly to Joyce, a good result for Chisnall could be a couple of legs, but with recent semi-finals, the form could be back despite the fundamental throw issues. Inconsistency doesn’t rule out elite performances, yet I can’t see anything but an overdue run at the Matchplay with Chisnall as the victim for Nijman.

Heavy Metal is the last player on the list, and could be one of Matchplay's dark horses. After running into a 108.92 average Littler last year, 2025’s appearance was a write-off despite how well he played. This year, he goes into 2026 with a better average and with greater credentials. Following his 2026 World Championship semi-finals, Ryan Searle sits 12th in the world, and after a few shouts of a Premier League selection and PDCTV commentator Matt Edgar repeatedly mentioning him as a Premier League candidate, the World Matchplay could make this happen.

A strong average of 95.33 going to the seaside, Searle has won 64% of his games this year and has been strong in his scoring, averaging 103.35 in his first 9 darts. Although not elite, his current level gives him every reason to progress past O'Connor, and could be raised when faced with elite dart players. 2026 has been positive, with his trademark yearly Players Championship win at Players Championship 7, averaging 100.13 across the tournament, and Searle’s levels give him every right to step on the stage with the ambitions of reaching the semi-finals.

Searle’s mental condition in the last eighteen months is what matters most. Three finals in 2026, a World Championship semi-final and a checkout percentage of 41.48% in the last 3 months; the gaps in his game have been filled.

Playing debutant William O’Connor, Searle will have full confidence in going further than his career-best quarter-finals in 2023. Despite making his debut, O’Connor isn’t an easy task and could end up being the tie of the draw. An average of 93.68 coming to the Winter Gardens and first 9 of 102.74; on his day, O’Connor matches Searle.

15 years on tour, this is O’Connor’s chance to consolidate himself past the top 40 in darts and become a Matchplay regular. Whether this will psychologically improve his game or negatively impact it will be seen on the day, making this tie interesting from all angles.