Bad sign for Michael van Gerwen: remarkable 'curse' hangs over top seed at World Series of Darts Finals

The World Series of Darts Finals has a unique ranking system where players are seeded based upon their performance across the year in respective World Series of Darts events. In 2026, Michael Van Gerwen ranks first, gaining 32 points over the season, but in other events this year, he has disappointed, seeing the Dutchman drop out of the top 4 for the first time since 2013.

This raises the question about whether the ranking system of the World Series of Darts represents the quality in the field, or is it a ranking system used to benefit the regional qualifiers?

Since its inception in 2015, the number one seed has won the event just three times, a 27.3% win rate. This means the top seed in eight years failed to win the tournament, suggesting form in the World Series rarely contributes to a win. This is no surprise, as the seeding system is based on the PDC World Series of Darts “Ranking Points” won at events that are spread across the tournament. This means that in the case of Stephen Bunting last year being top seed, he won events in Bahrain in January and Copenhagen in June.

This six-month gap followed by a 3-month gap from the World Series of Darts finals meant that, unlike the World Championship, where form in the months following the event often indicates the eventual winner, seen most clearly with the last 4 Grand Slams of Darts winners winning the World Championship in the next year, players despite being top seed don’t ride the same wave compared to other TV events.

The World Series of Darts Finals is also a non-ranking major, meaning player pressure is lowered, allowing for deep runs from players out of form or outside the top 4. In the tournament's debut in 2015, Phil Taylor was seeded one and lost to Michael Van Gerwen in the semi-finals, who was seeded three. From the players who have won when seeded one, Michael Van Gerwen takes two of the spots in 2016 and 2019, and with Littler in 2024, it can be argued that the World Series of Darts ranking system only dictates the draw, not necessarily the form. In both 2016 and 2024, Michael Van Gerwen and Luke Littler won the tournament and went on to lift the World Championship title, and in 2019, Michael Van Gerwen walked in as the World Champion.

This suggests the wider context of the form of players provides a much better indication of who is the favourite for the title, not the seeding like nearly all the majors in the darts calendar. In the wider sporting context, the top seed winning their event a quarter of the time would prompt serious questions about whether the seeding system is fit for purpose.

This is seen with the number 1 seed winning roughly 60% of French Open titles during the Nadal era and top conference seeds capturing 60% of all Super Bowl rings over the last decade. In the World Championship, the top seed reaches the final ~40% of the time. With the World Series of Darts number 1 seed being knocked out in the second round as many times as they have won, it implies the seeding system may be outdated.

Since 2015, the winner seedings have been: Seed one three times, Seed two twice, Seed four twice, Seed three once, and Seed 7 once, as well as Seed 10. Just once did a player unseeded win, with Machine James Wade in 2018 upsetting the odds. This constructs a median seed of three, with the top four seeds having won eight of eleven titles, suggesting a converse viewpoint that seedings are reflective of quality but not strongly predictive of where the players may finish.

This makes sense looking at 2026’s draw, with 2 of the top four players facing international qualifiers, showing a higher seed may grant an easier draw. However, seed five through eight hold the same privileges, but these players have won the tournament once despite representing some strong players. The tournament appears to reward either genuine top-four quality or a significant outlier performance, showing that the seeding system doesn’t predict who wins but predicts who may contend for the title.

The highest average player has won the World Series of Darts Finals four times from eleven years ago, a 36.4% win rate, just one more winner compared to number one seed. From the four of these results, Michael van Gerwen accounts for two and Luke Littler one, with all three also being among the stronger seeds in their respective years.

This means in seven of eleven years, the player producing the best darts across the tournament left without the trophy. The most extreme example is 2017, where Dimitri Van Den Bergh averaged 105.21, the highest individual tournament average in the eleven-year history, and James Wade won it, averaging 96.11. Wade's 96.11 winning average does not hide the 9.10-point deficit he overcame to win a major, which is almost unheard of in darts, yet at the World Series of Darts Finals it happened. 2022: Peter Wright averaged 103.11 and lost, and again Dirk Van Duijvenbode in 2023 averaged 103.20, again the highest, and lost.

The explanation is in the format. The World Series of Darts Finals uses a leg format throughout, meaning every double attempt is a match-winning opportunity. A player averaging 103, finishing at 36%, is scoring brilliantly between missed doubles.

A player averaging 97 finishing at 44% is converting the positions their scoring creates, and in a best-of twenty-one leg final, the finisher beats the scorer. In every year where the highest average player failed to win, the winner had a higher checkout percentage. The 2025 final proved this most visibly, with the losing finalist averaging 101.99 to the winner's 98.37, yet a checkout percentage of 47.83% versus 35.00% decided it. Neither the seedings nor the averages fully predict the winner. The doubles do.