How pressure from opponents affects 100+ finishes: PDC statistician dives into the numbers

In his latest column, PDC statistician Christopher Kempf delves into how the presence—and pressure—of an opponent poised on a finishing score can influence a player's success rate on ton-plus checkouts.

These high-pressure finishes, requiring at least one treble and often leaving just a single dart at a double, occur in only around 10% of all legs—making them three to four times rarer than a 180. No player actively seeks out these challenging situations, yet many consistently rise to the occasion.

Kempf’s analysis reveals a subtle but intriguing trend: players actually finish ton-plus combinations slightly more often when their opponent is waiting on a two- or three-dart out. The overall success rate rises from 10.4% to 10.6% under such conditions.

However, this marginal increase isn’t necessarily due to pressure alone. In these scenarios, players are more likely to face lower ton-plus checkouts—such as 100 or 104—which are statistically easier than monster finishes like 164. This makes it difficult to isolate pressure as the key factor. But when looking at individual performances, some notable patterns begin to emerge.

A slight correlation has been observed between age and ton-plus finishing under pressure. Veteran players seem to hold the edge. Jonny Clayton (18.2%) and Brendan Dolan (22% under pressure), both in their fifties, are among the top performers in the 2025 season when it comes to finishing under duress.

But youth is also making a strong case. Recent World Youth Champions Luke Littler and Gian van Veen have proven they can handle the heat, often improving their ton-plus finishing rates when the stakes are highest. Van Veen, along with Dolan, is one of just two players converting these finishes under pressure more than 20% of the time.

On the flip side, not every player thrives in the pressure cooker. Richard Veenstra, for example, sees his already modest 9% success rate on ton-plus finishes plummet to just 2% when an opponent is on a finish—a clear sign that pressure can be a performance killer.

The numbers suggest younger players and debutants may be more resilient under pressure than some of their more seasoned counterparts. Perhaps the weight of expectations plays a bigger role for experienced pros, while younger talents are freer to embrace the moment.

A prime example is 25-year-old Nathan Rafferty. His ton-plus finishing rate doubles when the opponent is on a finish. In contrast, Stephen Bunting—sitting between youth and experience—shows little variation, maintaining a steady 13.6% regardless of opponent pressure.

The ongoing Premier League campaign offers a compelling snapshot of this dynamic. Michael van Gerwen, long considered one of the game’s fiercest competitors, has struggled with ton-plus finishes under pressure—converting just 4 out of 59 attempts. That 6.8% success rate correlates with a lukewarm 51% match win rate.

Luke Littler, however, continues to dazzle. The teenage sensation recently nailed a 106 checkout against Luke Humphries—who was sitting on 40—and now boasts 12 ton-plus finishes under pressure this season. His win rate? Just shy of 80%.

Meanwhile, Rob Cross may have turned heads with a highlight-reel 170 finish against Gerwyn Price, but it's Price who edges him statistically in this category. The Welshman tops the league with a 16.0% ton-plus finishing rate under pressure, narrowly ahead of Cross at 15.3%.

What’s perhaps most striking is the overlap between top scorers and top finishers. Players like Price, Littler, and Van Veen not only pile on the 180s but also land the clinical finishes when it matters most—a lethal combination in modern darts.

Together, that trio has already recorded a staggering 127 finishes between 99 and 170 points in 2025 alone.

The message is unmistakable: to win in today’s elite game, players must be complete—able to both score heavily and finish clinically under fire. Those who fall short, regardless of reputation or past glories, risk fading into the background of a sport that never stops evolving.