Floor to Stage... Who Steps Up? These are the bona fide bigtime players

With the usual glut of TV tournaments on its way from October, Darts Orakel has investigated which players were most likely to lift their performance levels under the spotlight. Who can you usually bank on to add a point or two to their normal average? Or hit a key double more frequently than they might otherwise?

The short answer to the question is not many – only a small number of players yield notably better statistics and better outcomes on stage, compared to floor. For this assessment ‘better statistics’ is judged using averages and checkout percentages. ‘Better outcomes’ is determined by FDI ratings, accounting for the quality of opponents in each case. Having both a TV and an overall FDI rating for each player allows the distinction to be made. Totting up the percentage differences on those measures, here are the top six ‘stage players’ over the last two years of data.

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6. Peter Wright

It is a fair assumption that Wright is more at home in the more glamorous events, going by his eccentric on-air persona. This assumption is reinforced by the stats. Wright is averaging almost 2 points more on TV compared to floor in the past couple of years, helping to explain how he was able to pull a European Championship title out of nowhere at the back end of 2023 and a Euro Tour only a matter of weeks ago in which he beat van Gerwen and Littler, having looked out-of-sorts all season. The problem for Snakebite now is he must be in them to win them, and the two-time World Champ has a fight to halt his ranking slide and stay in the mix for everything.

5. Michael Smith

Once branded a bottler for losing a sequence of major TV finals, Smith is one of the few who have a higher average, higher checkout percentage and higher FDI rating on stage compared to floor. You can bet on the Bully Boy adding at least a couple of points to his average when on our screens and his TV FDI rating puts him 6th in the world currently, as opposed to his ranking of 11 in the overall index. Can he resurrect the form of 2022/2023 when he rose to World Number 1?

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4. Joe Cullen

The former Masters winner and Premier League finalist is having a tough time but when you next see him on TV, don’t be surprised to see an upturn. At the World Championships he gave Luke Humphries his roughest ride and had solid wins over Josh Rock at the Masters and Brendan Dolan at the Matchplay in 2024, when form suggested he wasn’t fancied. In 2023 he reached back-to-back major semi-finals. Stage Cullen is worth another +3% on doubles and around +1.5 points on his average. These numbers increase further when you segregate only his major TV appearances. Did the Rockstar lose a little motivation for the Pro Tour grind after being left out of the 2023 Premier League? It’s hard to remember him going through such a bad patch of form. The 2024 conclusion will be an interesting watch for Cullen fans to observe where he’s really at.

3. Luke Littler

What more can be said of this beast of a 17-year-old? At the World Series of Darts Finals he obliterated all in his path after scraping through a deciding leg against Ross Smith in the first round (he even averaged 103 in that match). Although he’s had more success in Players Championship events than anyone this year (especially when you consider he’s sat a lot of them out), it’s in front of the cameras that he really ignites. Littler tends to put about four points on his floor average when stepping onto the big stage and his FDI rating is a whopping 49 points higher on TV. A new superstar has arrived; we can all agree on that.

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2. Dimitri Van den Bergh

The UK Open Champion’s popularity with crowds appears to be dwindling but it hasn’t yet affected his performance levels when playing in front of them. His stage average is around 95 compared to 92.5 in Players Championship matches, while his doubling is more than 3 points higher. It was a close run between him and Littler for second spot – on our measures of percentage improvements the Belgian just edged it.

Van den Bergh is a different prospect on TV, more reliable at finding ways to get the job done (unless he’s playing Michael van Gerwen).

1. Michael van Gerwen

When you’ve hogged the limelight like MvG has, it’s expected you’ll be more up for the matches when the most money and glory is on the line. Despite being nowhere near his consistent peak, on stage this year he’s sunk both Littler and Luke Humphries in long format matches at the Matchplay and World Series of Darts Finals. Van Gerwen’s average on stage is just over 2 points higher, his outer-ring accuracy improves by almost 10% and his FDI rating, like Littler, is +49 on TV. There’s broad consensus in the darting community that his best days are behind him and whether it ultimately translates into more trophies or not, MvG remains a considerably more dangerous opponent when he steps on stage.

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