Luke Littler as World Matchplay favourite? These five English players will have their say including Luke Humphries, Ross Smith and Stephen Bunting

Luke Littler can be seen by many as the World Matchplay favourite and was touched upon in part one of our analysis in regards to the first five English players to watch at this year's World Matchplay.

But on the other side is a former champion in Luke Humphries who many feel could be a champion in waiting this year including pundits covering the event. He has played more when it comes to actual tour play and while Littler has cleaned up in the main during majors can others upset the apple cart?

Luke Woodhouse, Stephen Bunting, Ross Smith and Andrew Gilding are also highlighted in our latest pre World Matchplay piece. Woodhouse and Smith in particular are enjoying near unbeaten form on tour in regards to their metrics, only really bettered at times by Wessel Nijman and Kevin Doets who sit alongside them.

But can they mount a challenge for Littler and will Humphries be proven right? Find out the chances of each in depth below.

Having not yet picked up a major TV title in 2026, Humphries will see the Matchplay as an opportunity to break this drought. Winning the title in 2024, Humphries knows how to do it, but how can 2026 be replicated from two years ago? Prize money is now being defended, and after a first-round shock loss to Gian Van Veen, pressure is mounting for Humphries on the seaside.

With fears of missing out on the Premier League final night, Humphries has blasted into superb form in the last 3 months, reaching the finals of the Premier League and the US Darts Masters; he will walk into the Winter Gardens ready. Averaging 101.83 in these months, with a first nine average improving from 108.78 in 2025 to 112 in 2026, the stats are recovering just in time for Cool Hand. Checkouts are also looking stronger, with a 51.72% on functional doubles and a 42.25% checkout percentage; Humphries has all the tools to maintain a strong push for the title.

Seeded number two, the likely matchup will be Luke Littler in the final, so how do Humphries’s stats suggest he will win? In New York, Humphries beat Littler in a last-leg decider 8-7 with a 104.05; an extended leg-play win. Similarly, Humphries beat Littler 6-3 in Birmingham, averaging 110.98 and having partnered at the World Cup; the alliance shifts to rivalry at Blackpool. With greater match-play experience, checkouts will prove key, and with a match darts percentage of 57.45% in the same period, Littler’s dropped to 40.82%; a last-leg shootout will favour Humphries as it did at the Big Apple.

Humphries had a disappointing Alexandra Palace appearance in 2026, and after his win in 2024, he hasn’t looked his best there. A Quarter-final loss 1-5 to eventual finalist Van Veen spells trouble, but a respectable 101.12 shows that over a long period, Humphries is still in good form. Although December heartbreak, the rest of the year includes a European tour win, with a huge 105.96 average along the way to win the title in Belgium; Humphries' game is currently in better shape than ever. Tour wins include Players Championship four and 17 with several ton-plus averages; the only barrier he faces is walking up on stage and forgetting about last year.

As defending champion, the Newbury man was beaten in the first round 8-10 to a fantastic Van Veen, meaning he walks on stage without a Matchplay win for nearly two years. No stats can help explain the pressure Humphries could feel if he starts slowly, and with other first rounds including a 2022 loss against Aspinall, he has tasted defeat too many times. 2024 was special. Five games. Five wins. Five 100+ averages. Now sharing this with Phil Taylor, the 2025 first-round exit defines the 2025 narrative, not the larger picture.

With 2024 being won with sustained excellence rather than ease, a 102.78 average does all the justice to Humphries and proves that, walking onto the Winter Gardens and producing this average, which is only 1 point below his average in the last 3 months, the World Matchplay could be his.

Menzies awaits the 2024 World Champion. After the 2026 World Championship incident, Menzies has something to prove to the wider darts fans on TV. With a win at the Players Championship 23 and an average increasing from 90.22 to 93.31 in the space of 6 months, Menzies is at a similar level of growth. Emotional weight could push the uncertainty, but statistically speaking, Humphries should walk past Menzies. After a tragic debut, winning just two legs and busting 178, the Scotsman will have poor memories the moment he steps on stage. On form, winning titles, defending £200,000, Humphries has every reason to win the Matchplay in 2026.

The Bullet had a positive end to the Premier League, overall winning two nights and finishing fifth. Bunting will be asking the question of whether he can bring this form onto the Matchplay stage, and the stats suggest he could. Currently winning 58.7% of his games and averaging 96.13, he will need to find an extra gear, as the decline at the start of the year did Bunting no good.

A role model for the psychological aspect of the game, Bunting’s match darts checkout percentage of 78.26% is the best in the world, and with a first nine of 106.13, all aspects of his game are covered for leg play. Yet, the start of 2026 tells quite a bleak story. Dipping averages below 95 and checkout percentage at 36.15%, Bunting’s game sits in a volatile position. A gradual increase in these stats tells a story of redemption, but stepping on stage, either version of Bunting could come out, and Zonneveld will hope it is the February Bunting.

2025 was his peak earnings year, with two European Tour titles and two Players Championships, his 2026 has proved to not picked up a single one of these titles. Last year, he walked into the Matchplay with two titles. Moreover, the slump that Bunting has faced can be seen in finals. Losing 1-8 to Dobey at Players Championship 3 with an 84.92 average, the signs of volatility are visible. Another 84 average came against Springer at Players Championship 16, as the 2026 version of Bunting doesn’t seem to be the level of excellence 2025 produced. Positives can be drawn from his World Series call-ups; maintaining confidence levels after a much more promising premier compared to 2025’s, the Liverpool man can ignore his troubles on the tour.

Bunting and the Matchplay are a couple ready for divorce. Although 2025 produced a quarterfinal, his best result in the past 9 events was a second round. Not just this, losing to players such as Ratajski in 2022 and, with no disrespect to Clayton in 2025, Bunting has really wasted his opportunities to put his mark on this tournament. In that Clayton quarter-final, Bunting won just 7 legs and averaged 94.97.

Despite this, it’s clear progression from a first-round exit in 2015 to achieving quarter-finals ten years later; he’s had his chances to grow, and he’s taken them. The scorelines are important as well: 2021 and 2022 had 3 legs between them, and 2023’s second round was lost 9-11 to Michael Smith. He’s not been poor, just unlucky, and with different fortunes and his composure growing by the game, these scorelines can end up being much different in 2026.

Zonneveld on paper is an easy draw. With a ranking disparity of 27, the 2024 Masters Champion could be forgiven for underestimating his opponent. Zonneveld has been a breakthrough star of 2026, but actually comes into the Matchplay on a steady decline after a promising start to 2026. With an average of 94.48 in 2026 and a first nine of 104.79, his scoring power can’t be questioned. The debutant has trouble finishing, and with a 35.97% checkout percentage compared to Bunting’s 39.41%, there are huge signs of Zonneveld’s weaknesses and reasons for losing this tie. This tie could feel like dejavu for Bunting, with Zonneveld’s strong scoring and strong 2026 giving every reason for a tight game, yet Bunting’s composure and Zonneveld’s debut mean the Englishman should be confident.

Ross Smith has been the most underrated player in 2026 so far. The World Number 15 has put up not just impressive numbers, but has won three titles and the final stages of events countless times. All this without a shout for a possible Premier League place next year; the Matchplay could put Smudger on the map. Selected for his first World Series of Darts, playing down under in Australia and New Zealand, Smith’s imposter syndrome about getting to the elite level of darts could have worn off.

Although knocking on the door of the top 16, and at times the top 10, the 2022 European Championship winner has never felt elite. Now he does. This World Series call-up helps his case, and his stats explain why the PDC picked Smith. 67% win percentage and a 96.39 average, he’s playing the darts of his life. A recovering checkout percentage of 42.25% from 39.48% in 2026, Smith has peaked at the right time. Not just this, his double ten hitting is currently in the top 10% of players on tour, at 54.55%, meaning that even on his double that he doesn’t favour, Smith has got all bases covered.

Three titles and three semi-finals back these positive stats. Winning his first European Tour in Riesa, new ground has been broken, and this confidence can be seen across his most successful start to a year ever. Semi-finals have come recently, with Players Championship 19 and 22 coming in the last 2 months and European Tour 9 last month; his timing is impeccable for Blackpool.

Although not astonishing averages, the quality of opponents is always important. Beating Michael Van Gerwen in Riesa and Aspianll in European Tour 5, where he reached the final, losing to Gerwyn Price a respectable 6-8, Smith is one of the most active performers on the floor this season. Second in both the Pro Tour Order of Merit and European Tour Order of Merit, the rewards for Smith’s excellence are inevitable. With averages of 104.24 in Players Championship 5 and 107.01 in his winning final against William O’Connor in Players Championship 20, the Matchplay could have come at the right time for Smith to make inroads.

The World Matchplay hasn’t served Smith a good hand, reaching the quarter-final once in five appearances, with three first-round exits; he comes into the seaside with a record of two wins and four losses. His quarter-final run came in 2024, producing three 98+ averages but being dumped by eventual semi-finalist James Wade 10-16 after beating Josh Rock and Gerwyn Price. Not yet to average 100 on the Winter Gardens stage, records are there to be broken for Smith and with 2024’s form into the Matchplay also including title-winning form, everything that made 2024 so good has been amplified in 2026. Compared to 2026’s first-round exit to Chris Dobey, he went in without a title and mixed form. Could 2026 be the year for Smudger?

The odds don’t say this, as his opponent Kevin Doets is odds-on to win against Smith. The Dutch debutant has been on fire in 2026, averaging 96.72 in the last 3 months and setting the darts scene alight with another youngster. With a first nine average similar to Smith’s of 105.68, this tie is the best round one fixture. The stats suggest they are neck and neck, but with Doets best TV appearance coming in the form of a last 16 at the World Championships, his floor form could be redundant if he can’t produce it in front of the cameras. Yet, a Players Championship 13 win and a 117.12 average at the European Darts Trophy, Smith has got a game on his hands. With Doets coming into his debut Matchplay at 33/1 to win the Matchplay outright, pressure could mount, and has been in the last 3 months. A deciding leg average of 79.73 shows pressure gets to him, and with Doets the favourite against the world number 15, Smith will be hoping Doets experiences a similar drop in form in their mouthwatering first-round tie.

Woody has experienced a record-breaking 2026 for himself, earning £221,000 already, eclipsing his 2025 career peak of £203,750 in just seven months, £17,250. Woodhouse will look to expand this gap in the Matchplay, as the first real major exploit since his breakthrough. In the last 3 months, a 95.83 average and 104.80 first nine are significant improvements and a stable average that can compete with anyone on the stage. Players Championship 18 winner and Players Championship 13 and 24 finalist in 2026 shows, just like Smith, there’s no better time for Woodhouse to make inroads than now. Yet, his past two appearances have ended in disappointment.

2024, 92.28 average and lost to an injured Aspinall, missing a real opportunity that Woodhouse would take in 2026. In 2025, Woodhouse came into Blackpool in bad form and handsomely lost 5-10 to the 2018 champion, Gary Anderson. Without a win, many would expect Woodhouse to come into Blackpool with memories of this and fail to go past it. 2026, Woodhouse is a different player: higher averages, title-winning form, and finally winning a European tour title in Kiel.

Rock has also won a European tour in 2026, winning the Austrian Darts Open and receiving the first green jacket of his career. After a disappointing Premier League, the bounce-back hasn’t been promising for Rock. Averaging 98.88 this time last year, Rock currently averages over 4 points below that with 94.34, and with his checkouts declining to 36.08%, Woodhouse and Rock are matched. Without being inside the top fifty per cent on any double on tour, it looks unlikely that his 2025 run could be replicated.

When faced against Woodhouse, both first 9 averages are essentially identical, with Woodhouse at 104.80 and Rock at 104.95. It seems to be an on-the-day match, where the player who turns up seems to be the winner. The seedings will say Rock, but the 2026 statistics will say Woodhouse. Rock’s finishing seems a problem; Woodhouse’s confidence seems a problem. Whatever version of these players turns up at Blackpool, the match will decide that. Although I have said this several times, this could be another tie to watch.

Gilding has had a really positive year, breaking ground by winning his first Players Championship, beating Clayton in the final 8-3, with a standout 118.66 average against Cullen on the way. This isn’t elite; he played the best darts on the planet that day. Earning £154,000 in 2026 already, on pace to match his peak earnings of £263,500 from 2023; his UK Open winning year. Although great performances such as two Players Championship finals in PC18 and PC6, what do the statistics suggest? Gilding goes into the World Matchplay with his best averages for 18 months, averaging 94.21 and a first nine of 103.15, which matches most unseeded players in Blackpool.

Yet, he reached the World Matchplay quarter-final this year and the year before. He has experience of winning, so winning 3 games instead of two over a weekend could make history for Goldfinger.

Averages have dipped, with 84.82 against Dobey in the Players Championship nine semi-final, as well as a 1-8 loss to Price in the final of Players Championship 6, suggesting deep runs accompanied by disappointing performances. Gilding can’t afford to dip in performance when it matters, and on the Winter Gardens stage and with Michael Van Gerwen the opponent, every leg matters.

Statistically, Michael Van Gerwen should wipe the floor with Gilding. In reality, this has all the makings for an upset. Michael Van Gerwen is averaging 96.89 going into the Matchplay with a first nine at 105.87; he doesn’t go into the Matchplay in better form compared to last year. Missing the Premier League of Darts final night and defending runner-up money, he needs every ounce of motivation and performance to beat Gilding and possible future opponents.

Gilding beat Michael Van Gerwen 6-4 at the European Tour in June, and six weeks on, Gilding will hope a win would come again. The concept has been proven, but on the night of the Matchplay draw, MVG remains the more likely winner. Gilding just has to prove why that assumption is wrong.