PDC pros "might expect to have a perfect leg once every 3.5 years" according to stats expert

A nine darter is thrown much more in the darting world today than in the past. Still, achieving a perfect leg remains something every darter dreams of.

Christopher Kempf, who keeps all kinds of data and statistics for the PDC, has seen more and more players throw a nine darter over the years. "The probability of a nine-darter is the easiest to calculate because every nine-dart leg is, essentially, the same," he told the PDC. "Each player is positioned the same distance from the board when throwing, the boards are, with insignificant manufacturing variations, exactly the same, opponents can do nothing to interfere and most perfect legs are completed in the same way: a player attempts to hit seven consecutive treble 20s, a treble 19 and a double 12.

"Even if a player does attempt a 144 finish, his aim is always to finish in nine darts," adds the stats guru. "Because an eight-darter is not possible in 501 and there is no advantage to completing a ten-darter."

Kempf analyzed the results of the past two years at the Players Championships, where there were 30 tournaments each year. "Thus, because we know that players have contested 69,888 legs across 60 Players Championship events and achieved perfection 48 times, we can say that the odds of a nine-darter being completed in any particular leg are 1,456 to 1, or 2,912 to 1 per player attempt," he assesses. "Since the average PDC Tour Card Holder contests about 850 legs on tour per year, that player might expect to have a perfect leg once every 3.5 years."

Besides the normal format there is also an exception, as during the World Grand Prix the double in/double out format is played. In 2011, he became the first player ever to throw a nine darter there, and has been nicknamed "The History Maker" ever since.