ANALYSIS: It’s only a matter of time - How Wessel Nijman can break into the top eight

Wessel Nijman has been one of the true darting revelations of the past year going from a player who could only win ProTours to a bonafide major contender after adding European Tours as a string to bow.

Nijman as a result could be seen as a matter of time away from reaching the top 10 and in particular the top eight which in theory could unlock further darting accolades such as a Premier League spot.

The Dutchman has come a long way since being banned for match fixing and perhaps still has something to prove in that regard and maybe always will. But eight titles in a season could be the catalyst towards him reaching the top eight in the Order of Merit.

Nijman has spent three years on tour, taking each year by stride and rising to a career-high of 14th in the world. Just six years ago, at twenty years old, the Dutchman’s career looked over before it had begun. Banned in August 2020 for betting fraud during a Modus Super Series match, the youngster was banned from all DRA-authorised matches from August 2020 until February 2023.

The ban lasted two and a half years, and since it was lifted, the only ban Nijman could face is for dominating the floor. Winning his tour card in 2023, Nijman had a sudden progression with three development tour titles and a brace of Challenge Tour titles, showing no signs of struggle. Finding his feet, 2024 was the breakthrough year, with a Players Championship final at Players Championship 15, losing to Luke Littler 6-8, and a Players Championship title at Players Championship 24, beating Bunting in the final. With the semi-finals and quarter-finals scattered, Nijman entered the world's 18/1, joint fifth favourite to pick up the title.

He couldn’t transform the floor into a TV, losing to a motivated Joe Cullen in the second round and painting a picture that still follows him today. Despite an average of 107.67 in the 2024 Grand Slam, Nijman failed to pick up any points, and his TV form still proves to be the barrier from elite to outstanding. 2024 built foundations for 2026, where the breakthrough has finally lifted Nijman from a dark horse into a favourite for every event he walks into. Eight-floor tournaments in 2026, a 30% win rate with two European Tour titles in 2026 at ET2 and the most recent ET9.

With remarkable averages come unbeatable form; with a 2026 win percentage of 82%, the highest of any PDC professional, whilst posting the fifth-best average on tour, 97.70 in 2026. The 26-year-old has £550,250 next to his name on the PDC Order of Merit, with an astonishing 51.1% of that coming from Players Championships, and just 20.1% of that coming from TV Majors. Nijman didn’t develop slowly; he’s too good for that. He came in 2023, saw the Development and Challenge tour, conquered, saw the Players Championships in 2026, conquered, and now he sets his sights on the stage.

After winning his maiden European Tour title at ET2, Nijman revealed, “To win a tournament on such a stage was probably the best thing that could happen that weekend. So that is, for now, my best achievement”. For now. Nijman isn’t stopping at the European Tour. The next stage of his career to conquer is his TV form, which has struggled over his career. But to build this confidence, his floor form must continue to maintain its pristine quality.

Six wins out of twenty tell a story of dominance. Twenty-four separate matches averaging 100+ weaves a tale of unbeatable form. If Nijman were to be banned again, it would be to the relief of his competitors in the floor events. 1st in the Pro Tour Order of Merit, £117,500 above the chasing Ross Smith, proves Nijman’s prolonged quality over the first half of 2026. Wins at Players Championship Two, Eight, Ten, Twelve, Fourteen, and Twenty-One, with only Players Championships Twelve and Twenty-One where his final average dipped below 100, show Nijman is now peaking when it matters. A first-round win pays the same whether the average was 80 or 100.

As a professional, high-quality sportsman peaking at the right time, whether that be in finals on the floor or on a Sunday of a European Tour, hitting 100+ averages will win any player titles. Whether this peak comes at the right time of TV now proves a question that floor performances can never answer. Players Championship 10 goes some way to answer this question, though, with three separate 108+ averages in one day. 109.98 against Gawlas in the Last 32, 109.71 against Greaves in the quarter-final, and 108.46 against Woodhouse in the semi-final. This is no longer a question of whether Nijman can beat the top-quality players, because he is now playing at a higher standard than these players.

What’s most striking is the victims of these performances: beating Price in the European Tour 2 final, Bunting 18 months ago at the Players Championship 24, and players ranked around him, such as Wattimena, Searle and Gary Anderson, have fallen to 100+ averages. Nijman has converted from playing the player to the board, and it shows - on his best days, the quality means the opponent is almost irrelevant. “When I’m in that zone and playing good, I could play all day like that,” Nijman said to PDC after the Players Championship 10 win, suggesting Nijman’s flow state has converted from 95+ into 105+.

This 10-point increase is hidden behind an ugly, uncontrollable factor: floor events have a maximum of 15 legs that can be played in a game. This may explain the poor TV form as Nijman has built the tools to be successful on TV, spanning from playing well, to peaking at the right times and even composure with a 44.18% checkout rate, yet just £108,250 prize money from TV isn’t the result these performances confirm. As the number of legs Nijman can play in floor events is out of his control, is there a level of uncertainty when entering events such as the Matchplay, where even the first round can play out to 25 legs?

Stages shine brighter than any floor event could. Majors shine brighter than any European Tour. Majors have been Nijman’s kryptonite, where, despite solid averages, deep results are few and far between. The last 64 is the furthest Ally Pally has offered in the two times Nijman has arrived, reaching the Last 16 at both the 2025 World Matchplay and the 2025 Grand Slam. Not picking up a single set in both last 64 matches, losing 0-3 to Cullen and Clemens in back-to-back years, with the Clemens defeat producing an average well below his seasonal standard, suggests the long style format seems to be hurting Nijman.

The Uitgeest man is used to a first to 6, 7 and 8 matches, meaning that when he arrives at Players Championship events, whether this be Leicester, Wigan or Hildesheim, Nijman knows what to expect. However, when making his debut at the Grand Prix, Matchplay and making just his second at the UK Open, Grand Slam, and World Championships, Nijman hasn't yet accumulated the experience these formats demand. Will experience help him? Nijman’s losses have come at the hands of Littler at the Grand Slam and Wade at the Matchplay, players that he wouldn’t face regularly in a players' championship.

As the floor events offer shorter matches and players whose A game doesn’t match Nijman’s C game, Nijman can simply outscore them and build a short-term momentum that means, despite any fightback, he rampages past them. This skill loses all significance, however, in a long-form match against players who can match him, as seen with his 2024 Grand Slam.

Losing all three group matches despite averaging over 100 in two of them shows that Nijman’s skill that carries him to tour wins can’t be translated to TV stages. “You can’t be playing this well on the floor and not on the big stages - it’s only a matter of time”, he said, but the translation isn’t this simple. Whether nerves play a role is debatable, but the performances suggest something beyond pure quality is affecting his TV results.

Against the top 4, Nijman has a 40% win rate, losing to Humphries twice, and not yet meeting Littler in 2026. Wins came against Van Veen, averaging 112.87 in a 6-1 demolition, and Michael van Gerwen 6-2. The pattern is clear, Nijman’s ability in a short format can’t be dismissed, but he has to start to perform at this quality over a prolonged period. Can he?

First round against Sedlacek, Nijman beat him 3-0 with a 100+ average. Nijman averaged 101.72 in a commanding 10-6 win over Aspinall at the 2025 World Matchplay, showing this ceiling is possible. The answer isn’t averages; the problem is structural. The set format means there is more pressure on doubles, and more opportunity for Nijman to put himself under pressure.

With familiarity comes expectation, meaning Nijman can start to treat the pressure doubles on TV the same way he treats them on the floor. His confidence can now be built further than his average, as he now understands what needs to be done to win. As his TV experience accumulates, the Dutchman can start to expect these pressure doubles more, meaning that he can build this skill, outscoring and outclassing his opponent in sets and short 5-leg breaks, rather than a whole match. Through this, he can start to build that floor form onto the stage.

Josh Rock is currently 8th on the PDC order of merit, £62,750 ahead of Nijman with £613,000. This is the gap for Nijman to jump to become a Premier League contender. The Second half of 2026 holds this fate, where the World Matchplay presents the best immediate opportunity. “My goal was simply to be a seeded player at Blackpool”, he said to the PDC, showing that his seeding reflects two years of sustained quality rather than a single breakthrough season, giving him the 14th seed title. Currently, Dobey is 13th with £567,000, with Two-Time World Champion Anderson, Heavy Metal Searle, Danny Noppert and 2024 Masters champion Stephen Bunting making up the spots between Rock and Nijman.

All of them are within a semi-final run at the Matchplay of Nijman's position, and even just five wins from all TV majors in 2026. What’s promising, Nijman’s poor TV form means that he isn’t defending a lot of prize money, with 2024’s major money to defend just £83,250. This means that just one run steps Nijman from 14th to 8th, but what is he most likely to find this form in? The World Grand Prix offers a hard challenge that suits Nijman’s strong doubling, and hoping to redeem after a poor 2-1 loss against an out-of-form Rob Cross, he would fancy himself.

Yet, his strongest chance comes in the form of the European Title. Nijman, unless poor form or a strong surge from Ross Smith, will come into Dortmund the number one seed and with a first-round format of first to 6 legs, Nijman will fancy himself. Currently facing Joe Cullen, who sits at seed 32, Nijman’s ability to build this early momentum and overpower his opponent can be an attribute that brings this deep run. The mathematics are achievable, but when the cameras shine bright, Nijman melts.

His Euro Tour titles prove that performances can now come on stages, especially with that 112 average against Gian Van Veen showing this translation. Winter Gardens will show whether the Euro Tour has changed Nijman’s approach to stages, as it is the first major of the second half of 2026

With such form, Nijman is a contender for the Premier League. 7th best average on tour, third best checkout rate, 82% win rate, £278,500 money won without a strong World Championship; every metric is unbeatable. The Development curve from 14th to 8th is steep but Nijman has never regressed, and that won’t change.

Minimal ranking money to defend, Nijman understands the pressure, “Obviously, I'm on social media as well, and I see a lot of people mentioning my name at the Premier League. I think it's a bit early for that... I would love to play Premier League... But it's maybe a bit early to put me in the Premier League right now,” he told the Weekly Dartscast, showing he has self-awareness over the fact that rewards are coming, but doesn’t need forcing.

Top Eight looks inevitable, but whether this is built from further exploits on the floor or on TV will dictate his spot in the Premier League. His TV record is worrying, and Nijman knows he must diversify his game from overpowering opponents and maintain his confidence when he is in a rut.

This will come with experience, as he is a player who believes he deserves the recognition but isn’t chasing the possibility of overconfidence. Elite on the floor, Alexandra Palace just hasn't agreed yet; at 26, with eight titles in 2026 alone and a betting ban behind him, it won't be long before it has no choice.