ANALYSIS - Michael Smith: The Rise, the fall and the fight back

Michael Smith is currently ranked 31st on the PDC Order of Merit. His former self is barely recognisable, as his World Champion status in 2023 looks distant. “As soon as the announcer says ‘The World champion', I think I’ll probably cry,” he told Tungsten Tales after picking up the Sid Waddell Trophy in January 2023, showing just how much the moment meant.

In 2026, the announcement is ‘former World Champion’, and that's only when he’s on the TV stage to hear it. Peaks and troughs come for all dart players, but for Smith, the troughs have been deeper than he’d ever imagined when he was deep into his 7th holiday celebrating his World Championship win. The last 12 months for Smith have been shocking compared to his former self, currently ranked 52nd in averages during this time frame and humiliated by those he once competed with.

Despite 2025’s woes, 2026 looks to have some light among the darkness, with higher averages and performances where there is a visible increase in scoring and doubling composure, posing the question of whether the 2022 Grand Slam champion can find his former form. Results such as losing in the Masters Preliminary round, and five first-round exits in Player Championships so far, most noticeably losing to 3 new Tour Card holders with an average just above 80 in each game, show just how far he’s fallen. There is no fear surrounding Smith currently, as players with less experience than he had a decade ago are beating him with ease. How could a former World Champion fall like this in 3 years? What’s the underlying meaning behind the bullying of Bully Boy?

Smith grabbed hold of the Eric Bristow trophy in 2022 at the Grand Slam with relief, after the weight of 8 finals lost was diminished through a 16-5 demolition job of Nathan Aspinall in the final. This persistence portrays a player who, despite adversity, never fell and saw the only formula to win was to improve his game. “I lost eight in a row, and then I won the ninth and the tenth”, he told Tungsten Tales in 2023, proving that failure wasn’t an option; improving was.

His prize money in 2022 tells this tale, with £744,500 won, followed by £929,750 in 2023 to accumulate his world number 1 status. These elite-level figures are backed by the impressive win percentages of 67% and 66%, respectively, where, despite facing top players every week in the Premier League, he would win two-thirds of his darts matches.

At his peak, Smith was ruthless in his approach to 180s and high scoring, and his rapid-fire rhythm would blow players away. “That inner belief, when it was my shot, it was going in”, he said as his destiny was achieved in 2023, and his confidence was finally justified, yet this marked the beginning of the downfall, as through the torment of 8 losing finals comes a reward. An expectation of results started to build, where Smith himself began to believe the hard work was done. Professional, high-level sports don’t and will never work like this, and Smith faced these realities through his excessive holidays, which distracted him from getting ready for the next match. The honeymoon period sparked the divorce from top-level darts and gave him the basis to fall out of the top 32.

“The 12 months after winning it were the best 12 months of my life … I just had fun”, Michael Smith admitted to DartsNow, with eight or nine holidays in a year explaining the slip in momentum for the 35-year-old. “I did the wrong thing… It was immature, but I just wanted to have fun.” The consequence is damaging, as stepping away from the tour meant the competitive sharpness he’d built over the years began to fade.

2024’s win percentage dropped to 60%; the decline started before anyone noticed. The £500,000 World Championship prize money sat on his ranking for two years, and masked the reality that the player was behind this number. His ranking during 2025 was artificially high, with Smith not performing as the former World Champion, to which his furthest run in a TV major was a semi-final in Blackpool at the World Matchplay, ending in a 17-13 loss to the eventual runner-up MVG, reminding that even when functioning, the gap to the elite was growing. In July 2024, the prize money was still protecting his ranking. “Everyone else is thinking about me defending half a million, other than me…. The money is still sitting there safe, it is invested,” Smith explained, directing his perspective of having little pressure during those two years, seen through losing 16 more games than he did the year previous.

When the bill arrived, however, the consequences arrived all at once. “In the last year, I have been paying the price for that”, Smith told DartsNow. The £500,000 prize money rolling off his ranking in one cycle dropped him from world number 3 to world number 16 overnight. Yet, the matter to which he lost this: a 3-2 loss to Kevin Doets, the same player he had beaten at the same stage twelve months earlier. Smith, despite being the third seed, was a more vulnerable variant of the Bully Boy that darts fans had ever seen. “I just know the next time I win the Worlds, I am going to do a Humphries and keep on playing” - Although self-aware of the lesson he had learnt through the hammerblow he had suffered, if he can translate this self-awareness into consistent results remains the central question. This gap between what Smith says and what he produces on the board runs through his entire decline.

January 2025. Smith revealed what he’d been hiding. Arthritis in his wrist, right shoulder and left foot, admitting “I don’t think I’ve been pain free for the last four years. Even when I won the Worlds, I’ve always had the problem in my wrist”. This reframed the perspective of Smith’s rise and fall, as his 2022 and 2023 peak performances were achieved while managing chronic pain. It hadn’t gone away and followed him into the honeymoon period. The decline wasn’t all due to holidays and complacency; chronic pain played its part too.

Throughout Smith’s career, he has had this managed injury and permanent condition. This is far from a temporary one. It is a structural problem that no amount of motivation or practice can solve. “There were talks about a shoulder replacement … it means I lose my tour card”, “I’ve had it in my ankle, my right hand … I can walk normally,” he said at the World's including to DartsNews. Smith will never be in full fitness, but it is important to note that he never was. How well he manages the pain will determine whether peak Smith ever returns.

Such an injury drained Smith physically and mentally. Pain didn’t just affect his body. It affected him most in the moments requiring maximum physical commitment, and his performances show it. His deciding leg averages from May 2025 to February 2026 dropped to 89.05, then 83.5. Smith was always nonchalant in his approach to darts in games, but no amount of confidence masks what the numbers show. He is improving, though, in the last 3 months to a respectable 94.15. Checkouts declined consistently throughout 2025, from 40.16% to 36.32%, with only marginal improvements since. This is evident as in low-pressure leg scenarios of the first 9, his average is consistently 100, showing scoring was never the problem. Mentally, this injury is more damaging than any arthritis could be.

Michael Smith waited eight finals to win one. 2025 suggests he won’t need to wait eight finals to win a title, as he won’t be in finals at all. A World Championship round 2 loss against Kevin Doets, 3-2, started the collapse, the same man he beat last year, hitting an astonishing 142 finish along the way. The UK Open quarter finals have shown by far the Englishman's best result; the competition he faced to get there was far from formidable. Failing to qualify for both the World Matchplay and World Grand Prix sent a clear message about where his form actually sat, revealing to the world that his form wasn’t good enough to outqualify players who idolised him 2 years ago. Qualification via Tour Card Holder for Grand Slam gave Smith a lifeline, to which he reached a quarter-final loss to Humphries, escaping 11 match darts from Dobey in the previous round. Masters 2026 offered Smith no relief, with an immediate loss to new Tour Card holder Rhys Griffin, revealing a Former World Champion struggling to reach majors.

A low 93 average is needed to be averaging in the top 32 of the world; Smith currently sits 52nd. A 91.49 average explains his, frankly, disappointing 52% win percentage in 2025, 15% from his 2022 self, and that version of Smith was against tougher opponents on a more regular basis. Results that stand out include the 6-0 demolition from Marvin Van Velzen, where the Dutchman faced little rebuttal as Smith averaged 73.93. Dutch compatriots Dennie Olde Kalter beat him, as well as Mario Vandenbogaerde 3 times. 5 first round exits in 2026 included losses to 3 new tour card holders of that year, suggesting his claim of “Don’t think dropping to 28 in the rankings means I won’t fight” looks to be painting over the cracks of these dire results.

Now, Smith finds himself over £10,000 outside the World Matchplay, and it is looking almost inevitable that he will not be at Blackpool for the second year running. He won the 2024 World Cup with Humphries; if drafted now, he would need 14 players to drop out to play. The gap between who he was and who he is is documented through the prize money collapse. Smith has won £73,500 in 2026, meaning at this pace, he has collected just 18.9% of his £929,750 in 2023. Can the dead be raised from the grave?

Smith’s 2026 win percentage sits at 61%, recovering towards 2024 levels, showing signs of life. Promising results also include a final at the PC11 in April, losing in a thriller to history-making Beau Greaves 7-8, beating Dobey and in-form Doets and Hunt, whilst dispatching the 2023 UK Open Champion Andrew Gilding. Encouraging signs that aren't flukes show genuine quality still exists, as the deciding leg average increasing from 83.50 to 94.15 shows Smith is improving.

Despite this, the ceiling remains. The top 16 is £160,000 away from him, and although an upturn in form is positive, it isn’t to this degree. Failing to qualify for majors will only extend this gap, as those below him, such as the Magpie William O’Connor, as well as bright stars Zonneveld and Springer, will look to leapfrog Smith. Smith’s dedication has been questioned by himself brutally, as the road back is longer than his results suggest. 22nd in the European Championship race puts him firmly in line for Dortmund, a definite positive to take when taking into account that he has to qualify for each event.

Physical deterioration won’t reverse for Smith. Despite his claims of being back to full fitness, “I’m not bothered just now. It’s about just keep winning matches and doing stuff”, he told DartsNews, yet we never know this for sure as arthritis in his wrist, shoulder and ankle is permanent. Even if he manages this, it will never be cured. This is demonstrated through large sessions such as a Euro Tour weekend or a Player Championship; Smith’s body appears unable to sustain the physical demands of extended tournament runs, evidenced by just one final in 18 months on tour, and a quarter-final as his best result on the Euro Tour. A player managing chronic pain in his throwing wrist will always have a ceiling on what’s physically achievable under maximum pressure.

So where does Smith go from here? The stats and results suggest a top 20 is a realistic target for Smith over the next 12-18 months. His ranking points may be gone, lost through years of reduced competition, but talent doesn't leave a generational player such as Smith. The Englishman has navigated ranking collapses before. “I dropped down to 60 and got back up to number one”, he told DartsNews. Bully Boy’s story is far from over, yet this chapter proves to be the most challenging he has ever read.