Five reasons why Michael van Gerwen can become world champion from underdog role

For years, Michael van Gerwen was considered the top favourite or at least one of the top favourites for the world title at the PDC World Darts Championship. In recent years, however, that status of "Mighty Mike" has crumbled.

For the first time since the 2012 World Darts Championship, one could argue that Van Gerwen is no longer among the absolute top favourites, and that he is more of a major outsider to become world champion heading into the 2025 edition at the Alexandra Palace.

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At the betting shops, Van Gerwen is currently considered the fourth favourite for the world title. The absolute leader at the bookies is Luke Littler, followed by reigning world champion Luke Humphries. Gary Anderson is rated as the third favourite, followed by Van Gerwen in spot four. At some betting shops, you can even earn back 12 times your stake in the event of a fourth world title for Van Gerwen. A stark contrast to his peak years, when bettors could only get back two or three times their stake.

Although Van Gerwen himself obviously always expects the maximum from himself, there will be less pressure from the outside world. Still, we should not be surprised if the mighty Dutchman can still lift the Sid Waddell Trophy on Friday, January 3, 2025. Here are five reasons why!

Michael van Gerwen won his last of three world titles in 2019

1. In absolute top form, he's almost impossible to keep up with

Van Gerwen has shown over the past year that he is still one of the best players in the world when at his best. He has won multiple titles, and was in the final of the 2024 World Matchplay. A Van Gerwen in top form is almost always out in five visits or less, and is able to throw a high finish or a 12-darter at the right time to break his opponent. If the three-time world champion takes that form with him to Alexandra Palace, few players will be able to keep up with Van Gerwen.

2. Experience with long matches

As a three-time world champion, Van Gerwen knows what it takes to win on the biggest stage. His experience in the long format matches of the World Championship gives him an edge over younger and less experienced players who often struggle with the high mental and physical level of the tournament. Van Gerwen has already competed in seventeen World Championships at Alexandra Palace and during this time played as many as 66 matches over a format of at least best of 5 sets.

3. Mental strength

Michael van Gerwen is known for his unwavering self-confidence. Even after setbacks, he knows how to regain his mental strength. This is crucial during the World Darts Championship, where the pressure is often the greatest. Like no other, Van Gerwen knows which facets he has to take into account to deliver a top performance.

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4. Always good at the World Championship

Although the number of world titles may be a bit disappointing, it is nonsense to say that Van Gerwen has underperformed at the World Darts Championship. 'Mighty Mike' has been in the World final six times in the last 12 years, and only twice failed to reach the last eight. Moreover, there are extenuating circumstances for that.

At the 2016 World Darts Championship, Van Gerwen was stranded in a spectacle match against Raymond van Barneveld, in a match in which Van Gerwen posted an average of 105.78. At the 2022 World Darts Championship, the Dutchman was eliminated from the tournament in the third round because of a corona infection.

5. Draw

The draw did not turn out badly for Van Gerwen. The current world number three will face the winner of the duel between James Hurrell and Jim Long on Friday, December 20. Hurrell qualified as number 30 via the Pro Tour ranking, while Long is one of the North American qualifiers. Fine darters, for sure, but certainly not high-flyers either. Normally Van Gerwen should get through the first hurdle with ease.

Then in the third round possibly Brendan Dolan awaits, who still needs to win against Chris Landman or Lok Yin Lee. The first 'serious' opponent for Van Gerwen is not until the last sixteen, where Gary Anderson or Ross Smith are two of the possible candidates. Further in Van Gerwen's quarter are Dave Chisnall, Gabriel Clemens, Dimitri van den Bergh and Martin Schindler, among others, players that 'Mighty Mike' could possibly meet in the quarter-finals. 

Should Van Gerwen make it all the way to the semifinals, either Michael Smith or Gerwyn Price may represent the next stumbling block. Two former world champions who have been out of form virtually all season. Top favourites Luke Littler and Luke Humphries are both on the other side of the bracket. Chances are Van Gerwen will face one of these two players when he reaches the World final. And Van Gerwen has already proven several times this season that he can win against both players.

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There are plenty of reasons why Michael van Gerwen can still 'just' become world champion in 2025

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