MvG made a statistically defensible decision not to throw for the bull against Mensur. (All probabilities below are derived from observed data on each players' specific checkouts.)
Statistician defends remarkable choice from Van Gerwen in match against Suljovic
PDCFriday, 30 December 2022 at 15:05
Talk has mostly been about that one remarkable moment in the last leg of the fifth set after the World Darts Championship match between Michael van Gerwen and Mensur Suljovic (4-2).
Van Gerwen could have finished the game in the fifth set, but he decided to set up from 121 to leave double 16. A mistake as it turned out, as Suljovic threw a fantastic 161 finish to keep himself in the match and reduce the deficit to 3-2.
Van Gerwen's action received varying comments on social media. Many people understood the choice of 'Mighty Mike', but there was also criticism. For instance, Belgian analyst and former dart player Erik Clarys judged Van Gerwen's choice particularly harshly.
However, statistician Christopher Kempf reveals on Twitter that statistically Van Gerwen made the right choice. According to his calculations, the chance of Suljovic throwing out 161 was only 2.8 per cent. Moreover, the chance that Van Gerwen would actually hit the bullseye was 'only' 29.8 per cent.
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